30 January 2002, 16:41 US Q4 GDP up 0.2 pct annualized vs 1.3 fall in Q3
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The US economy expanded at a 0.2 pct annual rate
in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said.
The rise in fourth quarter GDP growth was unexpected. The consensus
forecast of Wall Street economists had been for GDP to contract by a
0.9 pct rate in the fourth quarter. GDP fell an unrevised 1.3 pct in
the third quarter.
For all of 2001, GDP rose 1.1 pct, the weakest annual growth rate
since 1991.
The strength in the fourth quarter was led by consumer and
government spending, which offset a record liquidation of inventories
and weak business capital spending.
Consumer spending rose 5.4 pct in the fourth quarter, after a 1.0
pct rise in the previous quarter. This is the largest quarterly gain in
consumer spending since the first quarter of 2000.
A surge in car sales led consumer spending in the fourth quarter,
the government said. Durable goods sales, which includes autos, rose
38.4 pct in the fourth quarter, the largest increase since the third
quarter of 1986.
Government spending rose 9.2 pct in the fourth quarter, the largest
increase since the third quarter of 1986.
Businesses subtracted a record 120.6 bln usd from inventories in
the fourth quarter, compared with a 61.9 bln decline in the prior
quarter.
The real change in business inventories subtracted 2.23 percentage
points from fourth quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.81
percentage points during the third quarter. Final sales -- GDP growth
minus inventory behaviour -- grew at a 2.5 pct rate in the fourth
quarter, much stronger than the 0.5 pct fall in the third quarter. This
is higher than Wall Street forecasts of a 1.8 pct gain.
The GDP chain-weighted price index fell 0.3 pct, down from the
third quarter's 2.3 pct gain. This is the largest decline in the GDP
price index since the first quarter of 1950. Wall Street economists had
expected the GDP price index to rise 1.9 pct
Excluding food and energy prices, the GDP chain-weighted index rose
0.2 pct, down from the a 2.8 pct rise in the third quarter.
The consumption price index rose 0.8 pct in the fourth quarter,
compared with a 0.2 pct fall in the third quarter.
Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index was up 2.8
pct, compared with a 0.5 pct gain in the third quarter.
In part because of the decline in the GDP price index, current
dollar GDP, which includes inflation, fell 0.1 pct in the fourth
quarter, the first decline since the first quarter of 1982.
The trade sector subtracted 0.85 percentage points from fourth
quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.27 percentage points from third
quarter GDP growth.
Exports fell 12.4 pct, less than the 18.8 pct decline in the third
quarter. Imports fell 3.4 pct, less than a 13.4 pct decline in the
third quarter.
Business fixed investment fell 12.8 pct, compared with a 8.5 pct
drop in the third quarter.
Residential investment fell 6.4 pct after rising 2.4 pct in the
third quarter.
Investment in equipment and software fell 5.2 pct in the fourth
quarter after falling 8.8 pct in the third quarter.
The advance GDP estimate includes some key assumptions regarding
December economic data that has yet to be released. The Commerce
Department expects a large decrease in non-auto wholesale and retail
inventories in December and also assumes the trade deficit will widen
in the month.
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