NEW ORLEANS (Dow Jones)--The economy will likely see some progress this year, but that progress will likely be slow and result in lower vehicle sales, said the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association. Speaking at a press briefing at the National Automobile Dealers Association Convention, economist Paul Taylor said car and truck sales will likely fall to 15.9 million vehicles this year from more than 17 million vehicles in 2001. He also predicted that profits on new cars will likely be negative in the next year, while profits on used cars will be positive. "There's going to be slow progress in the economy," Taylor told reporters. "And there will be lower sales at the dealers." Economic conditions are expected to be weakest in the first half of the year with some recovery later in the year, Taylor said. He also said real gross domestic product growth, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, is expected to be 2.8% in 2002 compared with a negative 0.4% last year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6% from 4.8% last year. Interest rates are also likely to remain low due to the weaker economy. "In balance this is good news, but this won't be the V-shaped recovery as many people expected," Taylor said. Sales are expected to fall this year, Taylor said, due to such factors as high unemployment and pull ahead from the interest-free financing programs offered late last year. Because the zero-percent offers knocked several thousand dollars of the price of vehicles, many consumers bought cars late last year instead of this year. The domestic auto makers began offering interest-free financing on their vehicles as a way to revive sales following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Profits at the auto makers will also remain under pressure, analysts say, because generous incentive programs, such as zero-percent financing, will drive down vehicle prices.