28 January 2002, 16:14 Forex - Euro slumps below 0.86 usd level in midday London trade after Ifo data
LONDON (AFX) - The euro came under renewed pressure in midday
trade, slumping below the 0.86 usd mark, after better-than-expected
German data reduced hopes of an imminent rate cut from the European
Central Bank, dealers said.
In addition, the ECB's room for manoeuvre on Feb 7 is expected to
be limited by a raft of data this week showing that inflationary
pressures in the euro zone have been exacerbated in January by the
introduction of euro notes and coins.
"This leaves the ECB in a difficult position with regard to
interest rates and it may decide to hold fire," said BNP Paribas
currency strategist Ian Stannard.
Earlier, the third consecutive rise in Germany's Ifo business
sentiment index fuelled hopes that the euro zone's largest economy have
passed its trough. January's Ifo index was higher at 86.3, up from 85.8
in December and ahead of the consensus forecast of 86.0.
Neil Mackinnon, senior currency strategist at Merrill Lynch said
the Ifo data and the inflation spike complicates the interest rate
position and highlights the dilemma the ECB faces.
"The fundamentals lag well behind what investors anticipate from
the US economy," he said.
Though the euro zone economy may have hit its cyclical lows, the
likely bounceback is expected to be well short of what is anticipated
in the US. The FOMC meets tomorrow and is expected to leave US
short-term rates unchanged after a clutch of improving data.
Both Mackinnon and Stannard think that euro/dollar could test last
year's lows of 0.8350 usd, possibly as early as this week.
The euro's continuing depreciation has also dragged down sterling
and the swiss franc against the dollar.
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