25 January 2002, 14:52 OUTLOOK UK economic data next week to highlight two-speed economy
LONDON (AFX) - UK data in the coming week is likely to further
highlight the gap between the fast pace of the consumer driven sectors
and the depressed state of British manufacturing.
Consumer credit, scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to have grown
by 1.7 bln stg in December from 1.524 bln stg the previous month.
"Consumer credit has had a firm tone to it recently. Each of the
past three months has witnessed a rise in net lending of 1.5-1.6 bln
stg," Philip Shaw, economist at Investec said.
Despite the surprise fall in December retail sales data, consumer
credit in the same month will likely show that the shopping spree is
not over, he added.
In contrast, the manufacturing sector Chartered Institute of
Purchasing and Supply's index for January is expected to remain
depressed.
December's headline reading was the worst since January 1999, while
the output component fell to its lowest in three years.
"Official manufacturing output data have shown a more marked
decline than the Purchasing Managers Index, so we would expect another
weak survey," Ross Walker and Geoffrey Dicks at the Royal Bank of
Scotland said.
Although the median forecast is for a small improvement to 45.5
from 45.2 in December, a substantial number of forecasts indicated
further contraction.
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