25 January 2002, 12:38  UK Q4 preliminary GDP up 0.2 pct from Q3; up 1.9 yr-on-yr

LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2001 when GDP -- at constant 1995 market prices -- rose by only 0.2 pct compared with 0.5 pct in the previous quarter, according to preliminary estimates from National Statistics. This leaves GDP growth it 1.9 pct higher year-on-year and despite the slowdown, particularly in the manufacturing sector, NS said the UK economy has now grown for 38 successive quarters since the last major recession in 1992. The figures were in line with the AFX News median of analysts' forecasts. Some economists had however forecast flat quarterly growth with the manufacturing sector in the doldrums. For 2001 as a whole, NS estimates that GDP grew by 2.4 pct, down on 2000's 3.0 pct. Third quarter GDP was up 0.5 pct quarter-on-quarter and 2.2 pct year-on-year. NS said that for the fourth quarter, output of the production industries is estimated to have fallen from the previous quarter. In particular, NS noted that manufacturing and the oil and gas extraction industries suffered baldly. The energy supply industry also declined a little over the quarter. The most significant declines in manufacturing have been from the electrical and optical equipment industries, metal and metal products and machinery and equipment. Output of the service industries is estimated to have grown 0.9 pct on the quarter compared with a 0.6 pct rise in the previous quarter, leaving output of the sector up 3.6 pct year-on-year. NS noted that output of the retail and catering sector rose 0.4 pct on the quarter, well below the previous quarter's 1.3 pct. NS said it estimates quite strong growth in motor trades, in line with the increases in the second and third quarters of 2001. For the year as a whole, NS said motor trades output increased by more than 3 pct following no annual growth in 2000. Retailing also performed well, with NS predicting a relatively moderate quarterly increase for the fourth quarter, following on from strong increases earlier this year. The estimated annual increase for 2001 is around 7 pct. However, output from wholesaling has experienced a slight decline but NS predicts that annual growth has been around 4 pct. Hotels and restaurants suffered as well during the quarter, leading NS to anticipate a 3 pct annual decline. Meanwhile transport and communication experienced relatively small quarterly growth, following the first decline for many years during the third quarter. Annual growth for 2001 was well over 5 pct, NS said. It added that land transport was little changed on the quarter, but air transport showed a clear decline over the quarter as a result of the events of Sept 11. Other miscellaneous transport and transport support also experienced a decline but posts and telecommunications exhibited reasonably strong growth, NS Said. Other service sectors, including government and personal, saw output accelerate during the quarter and annual growth is seen at little below 2 pct. Additional education and health spending has boosted government output, NS said.

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