25 January 2002, 12:38 UK Q4 preliminary GDP up 0.2 pct from Q3; up 1.9 yr-on-yr
LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy slowed down in the fourth quarter of
2001 when GDP -- at constant 1995 market prices -- rose by only 0.2 pct
compared with 0.5 pct in the previous quarter, according to preliminary
estimates from National Statistics.
This leaves GDP growth it 1.9 pct higher year-on-year and despite
the slowdown, particularly in the manufacturing sector, NS said the UK
economy has now grown for 38 successive quarters since the last major
recession in 1992.
The figures were in line with the AFX News median of analysts'
forecasts. Some economists had however forecast flat quarterly growth
with the manufacturing sector in the doldrums.
For 2001 as a whole, NS estimates that GDP grew by 2.4 pct, down on
2000's 3.0 pct.
Third quarter GDP was up 0.5 pct quarter-on-quarter and 2.2 pct
year-on-year.
NS said that for the fourth quarter, output of the production
industries is estimated to have fallen from the previous quarter.
In particular, NS noted that manufacturing and the oil and gas
extraction industries suffered baldly. The energy supply industry also
declined a little over the quarter.
The most significant declines in manufacturing have been from the
electrical and optical equipment industries, metal and metal products
and machinery and equipment.
Output of the service industries is estimated to have grown 0.9 pct
on the quarter compared with a 0.6 pct rise in the previous quarter,
leaving output of the sector up 3.6 pct year-on-year.
NS noted that output of the retail and catering sector rose 0.4 pct
on the quarter, well below the previous quarter's 1.3 pct.
NS said it estimates quite strong growth in motor trades, in line
with the increases in the second and third quarters of 2001. For the
year as a whole, NS said motor trades output increased by more than 3
pct following no annual growth in 2000.
Retailing also performed well, with NS predicting a relatively
moderate quarterly increase for the fourth quarter, following on from
strong increases earlier this year. The estimated annual increase for
2001 is around 7 pct.
However, output from wholesaling has experienced a slight decline
but NS predicts that annual growth has been around 4 pct.
Hotels and restaurants suffered as well during the quarter, leading
NS to anticipate a 3 pct annual decline.
Meanwhile transport and communication experienced relatively small
quarterly growth, following the first decline for many years during the
third quarter. Annual growth for 2001 was well over 5 pct, NS said.
It added that land transport was little changed on the quarter, but
air transport showed a clear decline over the quarter as a result of
the events of Sept 11.
Other miscellaneous transport and transport support also
experienced a decline but posts and telecommunications exhibited
reasonably strong growth, NS Said.
Other service sectors, including government and personal, saw
output accelerate during the quarter and annual growth is seen at
little below 2 pct. Additional education and health spending has
boosted government output, NS said.
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