25 January 2002, 11:47  Italian unadjusted retail sales in November rose 1.5% on the year after a 2.2% increase in October

according to figures released Friday by the national statistics institute ISTAT. ISTAT's year-on-year series is measured in nominal value terms and therefore is not adjusted for rises in consumer prices which, according to the main domestic index (NIC), rose 2.4% year-on-year in November. ISTAT's retail sales data is not closely watched by analysts because, unlike new car registration data, they show no correlation with consumer spending as published in quarterly GDP statistics. "November's result is not particularly brilliant," an ISTAT spokesman said, observing that the 1.5% increase was "the third lowest so far in 2001," and the lowest result of they year was just two months before (+0.4%) in September. The statistics institute's recently introduced seasonally adjusted month-on-month index was up 0.1% in November after a 0.3% rise in October. ISTAT officials tend to place more emphasis on the year-on-year series in presenting the data. ISTAT confirmed that from January 2002's data (to be released March 26) the index is to be re-based, with a 2000 base year to replace the current 1995 base year. An ISTAT official told Market News International Thursday that the new index will entail a considerably higher weighting for large retail outlets, which will make up some 23% of the index instead of 16% under the current index. The official said that simulations done using the new index produced higher sales' growth than under the current index. The current outdated index almost certainly under-estimates true sales growth, he said. November had 24.7 average opening days, 0.1 less than November 2000, ISTAT said. //MarketNews

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