24 January 2002, 15:59 Forex - Dollar strengthens in midday trade ahead of Greenspan testimony
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar strengthened against European currencies
in thin midday London trade ahead of US Federal Reserve chairman Alan
Greenspan's speech to the Senate Budget Committee at 3.00 pm about the
US economy, dealers said.
Dealers said that while they expect Greenspan to make some positive
comments about the US economy, they do not anticipate the testimony to
have much market impact.
Adrian Schmidt, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, said:
"Euro/dollar is approaching the bottom of its range, and that may be
what is dragging the other Europeans down."
He added that the USD/CHF was still some way away from the top of
its range and had some romm to catch up.
But dealers saw little chance of the euro/dollar cross falling
below the 0.8720 level.
They said a decent outperformance of European equity markets over
the US equity market should trigger some support.
"Historically, there is about 75 pct corellation between equity
market performances and euro/dollar," said Schmidt. "It is difficult to
believe that if it continues, it won't provide some support for the
euro, but for the moment it is hard to oppose dollar strength."
He added: "We really need to see more positive European data and
maybe some real money flows into European assets before the euro can
start to benefit."
Otherwise, dealers said a decline in US weekly jobless claims, due
at 1.30 pm today, could prove supportive for the dollar.
Karim Mir, chief dealer at Barclays Capital, said: "The move has
really happened overnight and there hasn't been much fresh impetus
since we came in. Maybe when the US come in we'll see them trying to
push the dollar higher against Swiss (franc), euro and sterling."
Equally, dealers saw a short-term base for the sterling/dollar
cross at around the 1.4180 level.
But sterling was mildly firmer accross the board as the EMU debate
continues to make headlines.
"We don't believe that we'll see a referendum (on the euro) this
parliament but while the profile of the EMU conversion debate is in the
news, it'll tend to underpin euro/sterling," said RBS's Schmidt.
He predicts the outperforamce of the UK relative to the rest of the
world economy is likely to diminish as the world recovers, partly due
to the smaller and relatively uncompetitive manufacturing sector.
"It's tending to suffer on the downside with sterling/dollar
leading the way, while on the upside euro/sterling is leading the way.
The British Chamber of Commerce quarterly economy survey contained
no surprises and therefore failed to impact on the market, he added.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved