7 December 2001, 09:59  OUTLOOK SNB to cut rates between 25-50 basis points

ZURICH (AFX) - The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) quarterly meeting today is likely to announce a 25 to 50 basis point interest rate cut due to the Swiss economy's weakening, low inflation, the strong swiss franc and the rising unemployment, said analysts surveyed. The current 3-month Libor target - the main measure of rates used by the SNB - currently stands at 1.75-2.75 pct. There is virtually no inflation and the released Swiss economic indicators are continuously worse than expected, said UBS Warburg's Andreas Hoefert who foresees a 50 basis point cut. The Swiss November inflation stood at a mere 0.3 pct year-on-year, against 0.6 pct year-on-year a month earlier. The Swiss November purchasing managing index fell by 1.2 basis points to 39.5 pct, the lowest level ever seen since its introduction back in 1995, while the University of Zurich's October leading indicator also fell further, to minus 1.02 from minus 0.87 a month earlier. "Over the past weeks, there have bad news after bad news," echoed Pictet analyst Bernard Lambert who also foresees a 50 basis point cut. Swiss unemployment is also edging higher, and the massive Swissair layoffs will be felt in the not yet released November unemployment figures, Lambert said. Swiss October unemployment rose to 1.9 pct against the 1.7 pct posted in September. Another factor likely to make the SNB cut its rates is the strong swiss franc, the analysts said. The euro's current trading just below the 1.50 sfr threshold clearly weighs on the Swiss export industry, Hoefert said. Machine exporters like Georg Fischer AG, Rieter Holding AG and Saurer AG are particularly hit by the strong swiss franc, said Bank Baer analyst Jan-Willem Ackett, who like the others expects a 50 basis point cut. "Swiss exporters are exercising pressure to have the interest rates lowered," he noted. The swiss franc is likely to rise further against the euro should there be no rate cut, the analysts said. The Swiss economy is showing clear slow down signs with full year GDP growth now seen at 1.5 pct, and that of 2002 at 0.9 pct, Lambert said. There is a big risk that Switzerland's fourth quarter GDP will post zero growth if not a declining GDP, Ackett said. The question is whether the up-coming first quarter's GDP growth will manage to rise, if not the country will be in a recession, he warned. Ackett foresees 2001 GDP growth between 1.5 and 1.7 pct, and 2002's between 1.0 and 1.3 pct. Credit Suisse First Boston's Thomas Trauth expects a 25 basis point rate cut, with an increasing possibility of a 50 basis point cut. The SNB's Libor target rate was last lowered by 50 basis point on Sept 24, following an identical 50 basis point cut on Sept 17 in the wake of the Sept 11 attacks.

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