Frankfurt, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.25 percent today, economists said. Policy makers may pare borrowing costs early next year to help revive economic growth, they said. Only three out of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said the bank will lower credit costs after reducing rates by a half point four weeks ago. Almost all predict a reduction by the first week in February. ``We are already in a recession in Germany and I wouldn't be surprised if we were moving in the same direction in some other countries as well,'' said Peer M. Schatz, chief financial officer of Dutch biotechnology company Qiagen NV. ``I would welcome another rate reduction.'' Germany's economy, Europe's largest, shrank in the third quarter after stagnating in the second. European consumers were more pessimistic last month than at any time in more than four years. Business confidence is the lowest in almost 5 1/2 years. European policy makers have lowered rates four times this year from 4.75 percent, compared with 10 reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Bank of England has cut seven times. The yield on the three-month Euribor interest rate futures contract due in March was unchanged at 3.13 percent, 12 basis points below the ECB's benchmark. On Tuesday, the yield was 3 percent. Today's monetary policy meeting is the last before euro notes and coins begin circulating in a dozen nations in January. The rate decision will be announced at 1:45 p.m., Frankfurt time. President Wim Duisenberg will brief reporters at 2:30 p.m.

`Bumpy Road'
``The last rate cut was relatively big and another reduction now may appear too rushed,'' said Andreas Moeller, an analyst at WGZ Westdeutsche Genossenschaftsbank, a bank in Dusseldorf. ``We'll see a rate cut at the beginning of next year.'' Europe's central bank expects the inflation rate to drop to below 2 percent early next year, though it ``may be a bumpy road,'' ECB council member Klaus Liebscher said on Monday. The bank hasn't cut rates more often because inflation has exceeded its 2 percent limit since June last year. The rate fell to 2.1 percent in November from 2.4 percent in October, the lowest level in 18 months. A decline in October producer prices suggests it may slow further.

Scope to Cut Again
European companies have announced 468,000 job cuts so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. German unemployment rose for a 10th month this year in November a report yesterday showed. Deutz AG, a German maker of diesel engines, on Friday said it will eliminate about 13 percent of its workforce. Valeo SA, Europe's largest publicly traded car-parts maker, said business next year will be worse than expected. European manufacturing contracted in November for the eighth straight month and companies lowered prices, an industry surveyed showed Monday, more evidence inflation is become less of a threat as the world's top economies shrink. ``There is still room for the ECB to move -- the U.S. is showing us how,'' Herbert Bodner, chief executive officer of German building company Bilfinger and Berger AG, told reporters on Tuesday.

Recovery Next Year
The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the third quarter. Some executives expect a recovery, after figures released this week suggest the world's largest economy may pick up steam next year. U.S. consumer spending rose a record 2.9 percent in October and an index of American manufacturing rose more than expected last month, led by the biggest improvement in new orders in more than 20 years. Business at service companies unexpectedly expanded, reversing a slump that followed September's terrorist attacks, the National Association of Purchasing Management said yesterday. U.S. companies buy a quarter of the European Union's exports. German factory orders probably rose 0.7 percent in October, analysts said. ``The ECB has cut rates enough to stimulate growth,'' Holger Haerter, chief financial officer of carmaker Porsche AG said in an interview. Porsche said yesterday it expects 2002 earnings to grow even as the U.S. and German economies stall. ``I don't expect to see another rate cut this year.''