5 December 2001, 09:21 Forex - Major currencies rangebound in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of US data
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Major currencies were little changed in
midafternoon Tokyo trade with investors reluctant to take fresh
positions ahead of the release of US November non-farm payroll data on
Friday, dealers said.
"It is difficult to read the outcome of non-farm payroll data. But
I am expecting that the outcome will not be too bad," a dealer at a
local Japanese bank said, without elaborating.
"In addition, I think the forex market has digested a negative
outcome of non-farm payroll data. If the data is better-than-expected,
it is possible that the dollar will rise against the yen," he said.
However, the dollar's rise will be capped at around 124.50,
pressured by large sell orders of the US unit at that level, he said.
"Investors are looking more at yen-negative news rather than
dollar-negative news at the moment. But even though they want to sell
the yen, they cannot do so at the moment, because of large dollar-sell
orders at the 124.50 yen level," he said.
He said if Japan's economic fundamentals are confirmed by third
quarter GDP data due out Friday, and the latest Tankan survey, which is
expected next week, it is possible that the dollar will breach the
124.50 yen level.
Some research houses have revised their third quarter GDP forecasts
upward following corporate activity data released this morning by the
Ministry of Finance, dealers said.
An MoF official said that the rise in corporate investment in new
plants in the third quarter was surprising, though the outlook for
capital spending will be affected by continued weak sentiment.
Capital expenditure of non-financial firms was up 0.5 pct in the
third quarter, the MoF said.
The local Japanese bank dealer said the dollar/yen will move in a
range of 123.00-125.00 for the next week.
The euro was also little changed, ahead of a European Central Bank
meeting tomorrow, dealers said.
The bank dealer said that investors are expecting the ECB to decide
to cut rates by 25 basis points.
He said the euro will continue to be pressured against the dollar,
as investors are currently adjusting their euro-long positions.
"It seems like investors are holding large euro-long positions. I
think the euro will continue to be pressured by this euro-long position
adjustment for the time being," he said.
He said he expects the euro/dollar to move in the range of
0.8800-0.8950 in the next week.
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