4 December 2001, 09:04  : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

THOMAS FITZPATRICK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CITIFX

EURO/DOLLAR: "It's caught between a couple of interesting points at the moment. The rally that peaked on Friday when we got up to 89.83 cents was actually identical in depth to the previous rally between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1. Also the trendline coming down from the highs was coming around 89.85 cents." "So on one side we did things like broke back up over the 200-day moving average which stands at 88.94 -- we're still above it at the moment -- and we broke through some short-term levels. We did stop at an area that is quite important between 89.60-89.85 cents, so while we're below there we don't have a conclusive bullish scenario."
"But at the same time we need to see us moving back below levels below the 88.70 cents area to suggest that the upmove has been one that is another correction like we've had on a number of occasions and that we could see some further euro weakness."
EURO/YEN: "It's very much part and parcel of the same thing. We got back to the same high that we hit funnily enough on Nov. 1, around 110.80 yen. It's still possible we go through there, but for the moment it's proven to be a level of resistance. Above there, that would sent you up to test the highs 111.75 yen that was set in October but at this point really, euro/yen has been pretty much in range trade since August."
DOLLAR/YEN: "It's performing reasonably well. It's sitting above all the important moving averages. It did hold some good resistance at 124.15 yen a couple of days ago. We are not that far away from that again and and there's reasonable trendline resistance coming in around 125.10 yen."
"It's been creeping up gradually. The market's quite bullish on dollar/yen but there's a lot to get through in the area between 124 yen all the way up to 126.75 yen. It's not impossible to do that before year-end but I don't know whether there's the enthusiasm or the momentum to necessarily drive it through all those levels."

TECHNICAL ANALYST, MCM CURRENCY WATCH

EURO/DOLLAR: "Euro/dollar cleared Thursday's 89.21 cents high to leave failed downward break at 88.47 cents on Friday. Fresh gains exceeded 89.40/62 cents minimum target to 89.72/89 cents next resistance area where top of 10-week bear channel intersects."
"A modest setback has followed, but holding 89.00-88.85 cents bodes well for a fresh attack on key 89.72-83 cents resistance.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Dollar-Swiss franc extended retracement of last Tuesday-Wednesday 1.6700-1.6390 francs decline to 1.6640 francs on Friday before reversing sharply. Losing 1.6550-80 francs left a failed upside break with losses into 1.6350-90 francs target area seen ahead of latest bounce. 62 percent retracement of Friday's fall so far tested, but as yet this unconfirmed as lower top for fresh falls."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Dollar/yen probed lower Friday to 122.82 yen to hold above 122.71 yen -- 38 percent retracement of 119.69-124.58 yen -- before rebounding back toward 124.15 yen, Friday's lower high. Daily momentum remains firm supporting the positive channel and a breach of 124.00-124.15 yen would complete a five day continuation pattern targeting initially 124.58 yen and 125.00 yen.
"Only losing 122.71 yen sours near-term bull tone.

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