4 December 2001, 09:04 : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
THOMAS FITZPATRICK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CITIFX
EURO/DOLLAR: "It's caught between a couple of interesting
points at the moment. The rally that peaked on Friday when we
got up to 89.83 cents was actually identical in depth to the
previous rally between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1. Also the trendline
coming down from the highs was coming around 89.85 cents."
"So on one side we did things like broke back up over the
200-day moving average which stands at 88.94 -- we're still
above it at the moment -- and we broke through some short-term
levels. We did stop at an area that is quite important between
89.60-89.85 cents, so while we're below there we don't have a
conclusive bullish scenario."
"But at the same time we need to see us moving back below
levels below the 88.70 cents area to suggest that the upmove
has been one that is another correction like we've had on a
number of occasions and that we could see some further euro
weakness."
EURO/YEN: "It's very much part and parcel of the same
thing. We got back to the same high that we hit funnily enough
on Nov. 1, around 110.80 yen. It's still possible we go through
there, but for the moment it's proven to be a level of
resistance. Above there, that would sent you up to test the
highs 111.75 yen that was set in October but at this point
really, euro/yen has been pretty much in range trade since
August."
DOLLAR/YEN: "It's performing reasonably well. It's sitting
above all the important moving averages. It did hold some good
resistance at 124.15 yen a couple of days ago. We are not that
far away from that again and and there's reasonable trendline
resistance coming in around 125.10 yen."
"It's been creeping up gradually. The market's quite
bullish on dollar/yen but there's a lot to get through in the
area between 124 yen all the way up to 126.75 yen. It's not
impossible to do that before year-end but I don't know whether
there's the enthusiasm or the momentum to necessarily drive it
through all those levels."
TECHNICAL ANALYST, MCM CURRENCY WATCH
EURO/DOLLAR: "Euro/dollar cleared Thursday's 89.21 cents
high to leave failed downward break at 88.47 cents on Friday.
Fresh gains exceeded 89.40/62 cents minimum target to 89.72/89
cents next resistance area where top of 10-week bear channel
intersects."
"A modest setback has followed, but holding 89.00-88.85
cents bodes well for a fresh attack on key 89.72-83 cents
resistance.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Dollar-Swiss franc extended
retracement of last Tuesday-Wednesday 1.6700-1.6390 francs
decline to 1.6640 francs on Friday before reversing sharply.
Losing 1.6550-80 francs left a failed upside break with losses
into 1.6350-90 francs target area seen ahead of latest bounce.
62 percent retracement of Friday's fall so far tested, but as
yet this unconfirmed as lower top for fresh falls."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Dollar/yen probed lower Friday to 122.82 yen
to hold above 122.71 yen -- 38 percent retracement of
119.69-124.58 yen -- before rebounding back toward 124.15 yen,
Friday's lower high. Daily momentum remains firm supporting the
positive channel and a breach of 124.00-124.15 yen would
complete a five day continuation pattern targeting initially
124.58 yen and 125.00 yen.
"Only losing 122.71 yen sours near-term bull tone.
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