3 December 2001, 08:59  OUTLOOK - Japan economic indicators for wk to Dec 7

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
MOF SURVEY: JAPAN Q3 PRETAX PROFIT, Wednesday (8:50 am): -- down 8.0-25.0 pct yr-on-yr (up 1.0)

MOF SURVEY: JAPAN Q3 CAPEX, Wednesday (8:50 am) -- down 1.3-3.0 pct yr-on-yr (up 2.3)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Non-financial corporate activity likely continued to deteriorate into the third quarter. Overall sales and recurring profits are forecast to register the first year-on-year decline since the third quarter 1999 and the fourth quarter 1998, respectively. Manufacturers probably led the deterioration, while non-manufacturers' performance still held up, barely. The deterioration now appears to be spreading to non-manufacturers. Capital spending is also likely to record the first year-on-year drop since the fourth quarter 1999. Manufacturers' capex probably weakened sharply." HSBC wrote: "MoF corporate survey for July-September is likely to show all industry's capital spending to have declined 1.3 pct year-on-year, down from a 2.3 pct rise in April-June and negative growth for the first time in seven quarters. Given overall corporate profit diminishing, it is inevitable for capex growth to decline further into the future."

JAPAN OCT LEADING INDEX, Thursday (2:00 pm)
-- 14.3 pts (30.0; consensus 14.3)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Based on our own forecasts for some component series ... the Leading DI is expected to stay below the 50 pct cut-off level for the second straight month. The Leader now appears to be turning down after recording three above-50 pct marks in four months during summer."
HSBC wrote: "In October, the leading DI is likely to be 14.3 pct, below the benchmark of 50 pct again, after 30.0 pct recorded in the previous month. We expect only one indicator -- money supply -- out of seven to show an improvement compared with three months ago."

JAPAN Q3 REAL GDP, Friday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.2-1.0 pct qtr-on-qtr (down 0.7; consensus down 0.6)
-- down 0.3-4.5 pct annualised (down 2.9; consensus down 2.8)
ING Baring wrote: "There is the risk of a significant negative surprise in the third quarter GDP figures. Unfortunately, the quarterly GDP series is highly erratic and leaves room for significant divergence from reliable indicators. In the second quarter it appears that the split between nominal and real GDP was abnormal. There is a serious risk that Q3 will reverse this abnormality, producing an unusually weak real GDP figure."
Commerzbank wrote: "Weakness should be concentrated in private domestic demand. This is an important change in trend. Consumption and capex rose in the first half of 2001. Risks ... are on the downside given the sharp drop in some consumption-related indicators in the quarter."

JAPAN OCT OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Friday (2:00 pm):
-- up 1.6-down 4.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 3.7; consensus down 0.3)

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