3 December 2001, 08:59 OUTLOOK - Japan economic indicators for wk to Dec 7
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given
by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this
week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
MOF SURVEY: JAPAN Q3 PRETAX PROFIT, Wednesday (8:50 am):
-- down 8.0-25.0 pct yr-on-yr (up 1.0)
MOF SURVEY: JAPAN Q3 CAPEX, Wednesday (8:50 am)
-- down 1.3-3.0 pct yr-on-yr (up 2.3)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Non-financial corporate activity likely
continued to deteriorate into the third quarter. Overall sales and
recurring profits are forecast to register the first year-on-year
decline since the third quarter 1999 and the fourth quarter 1998,
respectively. Manufacturers probably led the deterioration, while
non-manufacturers' performance still held up, barely. The deterioration
now appears to be spreading to non-manufacturers. Capital spending is
also likely to record the first year-on-year drop since the fourth
quarter 1999. Manufacturers' capex probably weakened sharply."
HSBC wrote: "MoF corporate survey for July-September is likely to
show all industry's capital spending to have declined 1.3 pct
year-on-year, down from a 2.3 pct rise in April-June and negative
growth for the first time in seven quarters. Given overall corporate
profit diminishing, it is inevitable for capex growth to decline
further into the future."
JAPAN OCT LEADING INDEX, Thursday (2:00 pm)
-- 14.3 pts (30.0; consensus 14.3)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Based on our own forecasts for some component
series ... the Leading DI is expected to stay below the 50 pct cut-off
level for the second straight month. The Leader now appears to be
turning down after recording three above-50 pct marks in four months
during summer."
HSBC wrote: "In October, the leading DI is likely to be 14.3 pct,
below the benchmark of 50 pct again, after 30.0 pct recorded in the
previous month. We expect only one indicator -- money supply -- out of
seven to show an improvement compared with three months ago."
JAPAN Q3 REAL GDP, Friday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.2-1.0 pct qtr-on-qtr (down 0.7; consensus down 0.6)
-- down 0.3-4.5 pct annualised (down 2.9; consensus down 2.8)
ING Baring wrote: "There is the risk of a significant negative
surprise in the third quarter GDP figures. Unfortunately, the quarterly
GDP series is highly erratic and leaves room for significant divergence
from reliable indicators. In the second quarter it appears that the
split between nominal and real GDP was abnormal. There is a serious
risk that Q3 will reverse this abnormality, producing an unusually weak
real GDP figure."
Commerzbank wrote: "Weakness should be concentrated in private
domestic demand. This is an important change in trend. Consumption and
capex rose in the first half of 2001. Risks ... are on the downside
given the sharp drop in some consumption-related indicators in the
quarter."
JAPAN OCT OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Friday (2:00 pm):
-- up 1.6-down 4.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 3.7; consensus down 0.3)
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