20 December 2001, 09:35 BoJ downgrades economic assessment; consumption, exports weak
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Bank of Japan said it downgraded its overall
economic assessment in December, citing weak consumption, exports and
fixed investment.
The bank downgraded its private consumption and earnings
assessments.
"Japan's economy is deteriorating broadly as private consumption is
weakening in addition to a decline in exports and business fixed
investment," it said, adding: "Japan's economy will inevitably continue
to deteriorate for a while."
"Net exports continue to decline and business fixed investment is
also decreasing. Housing investment remains sluggish and public
investment is on a downward trend. Moreover, private consumption is
weakening recently."
The bank noted that industrial output continues to decline
considerably on weak demand and excess inventories, mainly in
materials.
"Corporate profits are sharply falling and business sentiment keeps
on worsening," it said, although it added that information-technology
inventory adjustments are taking place across the world.
"Inventory adjustments in IT-related goods worldwide are showing
steady progress and this has strengthened the view that adjustments
will be mostly completed by around next spring," the bank said.
"However, as final demand of IT-related goods still remains
stagnant, a distinct recovery in exports of the sector is unlikely for
the time being."
The conditions for households also remain negative.
"The weakness in household income is becoming noticeable on the
decrease in the hours worked and the rise in unemployment, while
consumer confidence is becoming cautious."
The central bank left its assessment of price movements unchanged,
although it remains cautious over the outlook.
"Overall, prices are expected to follow a gradual declining trend
for the time being. Moreover, given the high degree of uncertainty
regarding future economic developments, the possibility that weak
demand will further intensify downward pressure on prices warrants
careful monitoring."
The bank said the fallout from the Sept 11 attacks on the US
continues to threaten a further slowdown.
"Downward pressure may be exerted on Japan's exports and production
once again depending on the developments in overseas economies such as
the US," it said.
"Business fixed investment is expected to follow a downward trend
on the fall in corporate profits. Private consumption will also
continue to be weak along with deteriorating employment and income
conditions," it added.
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