17 December 2001, 09:23 OUTLOOK - Japan economic indicators for wk to Dec 21
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given
by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this
week (compared with previous period data or previous estimates):
JAPAN NOV TRADE BALANCE, Thursday (8:50 am):
-- surplus 330-730 bln yen (595.6 bln; consensus 504.6 bln)
ING Baring wrote: ""November trade numbers should ... be
interesting, because the decline in exports has shown signs of slowing
down in recent months. Hopes of recovery later in 2002 rest heavily on
the export sector, so signs that a bottom is approaching could boost
expectations that the second quarter might be the trough in the
business cycle."
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "The trend (of) deterioration in
the trade balance likely continued in November, with an expected 17.3
pct year-on-year decline in the trade surplus. The sustained September
11 effect likely continued to depress the export volume at minus 20.3
pct whereas the domestic weakness probably accelerated the import
volume contraction from October to 18.8 pct in November. Including the
effect of the weaker yen, our expected contractions in value terms are
8 pct for exports and 6.5 pct for imports."
HSBC wrote: "The trade surplus is expected to have fallen by 11.0
pct year-on-year in November, for the 17th month in a row of
year-on-year drops. Imports should see a large rate of decline, of 7.5
pct year-on-year, while exports are expected to decline 8.0 pct."
JAPAN OCT TERTIARY INDEX, Friday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.1-1.0 pct mth-on-mth (down 0.9)
-- down 0.1 pct yr-on-yr (up 0.1)
JAPAN OCT ALL-INDUSTRY, Friday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.3-0.7 pct mth-on-mth (down 0.8)
-- down 2.3-3.3 pct yr-on-yr (down 3.2)
HSBC wrote: "Due to the weakness in retail (and) wholesale, (the)
utilities and financial sectors, the tertiary industry activity index
is expected to have declined on the month. With industrial production
falling by 0.3 pct month-on-month in October, the all-industry activity
index is likely to have fallen by 0.7 pct."
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