17 December 2001, 09:22 OUTLOOK Euro zone data to show inflationary easing, possible German recovery
LONDON (AFX) - A raft of euro zone figures due for release in the
coming week will show that inflationary pressures are easing further
and that Germany's economy is on course for a recovery next year,
economists said.
Investors will be closely eyeing the crucial German Ifo business
confidence numbers. Following three consecutive monthly declines,
economists are hopeful that the index will increase in November, though
it will still remain short of the the pre-Sept 11 levels.
"A November rise in the Ifo business climate index probably would
boost expectations that German GDP will stop declining in the first
quarter 2002, but would occur too late to dispel expectations of a
meaningful output contraction in the current quarter," said Schroder
Salomon Smith Barney Michael Saunders.
German data will dominate the week and PPI, CPI and import price
figures will highlight benign inflationary pressures in Europe's
largest economy.
France will also be a focus and consumer spending figures for
November are expected to rebound in November, boosted by spending on
clothing and auto sales.
The euro zone aggregate inflation figures for November are expected
to show a small fall in both headline and core figures. The core figure
is nudging towards 2 pct. Dresdner Kleinwort expects the rate to
continue to delince to around 1 pct in the spring as growth in
aggregates stays well trend.
"Not only will that provide an ex-post validation of interest rate
cuts that we have seen, but it will also open the door to addional
reductions in the refinancing rate," DKW said in a research note.
Economists' forecasts for euro zone indicators due Dec 17-21
AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
MONDAY DEC 17 - FRIDAY DEC 21
German PPI (Nov)
month-on month -0.2 pct -0.9 pct
year-on-year 0.2 pct 0.6 pct
German Import Prices (Nov)
month-by-month -0.4 pct -1.6 pct
year-on-year -6.6 pct -5.6 pct
German CPI (Nov)
month-by-month 0.1 pct -0.2 pct
year-on-year 1.7 pct 1.7 pct
MONDAY DEC 17
German Ifo Index (Nov) 85.2 84.7
TUESDAY DEC 18
Euro Zone CPI (Nov)
month-on-month unchanged -0.1 pct
year-on-year 2.5 pct 2.4 pct
Core Euro Zone CPI (Nov)
month-on-month 0.1 pct 0.1 pct
year-on-year 2.2 pct 2.3 pct
Euro Zone Industrial Production (Nov)
month-month -0.7 -0.5
year-on-year -1.7 -0.6
WEDNESDAY DEC 19
Spain GDP (Q3)
quarter-on-quarter 0.4 pct 0.7 pct
year-on-year 2.6 pct 3.0 pct
THURSDAY DEC 20
French Consumer Spending (Nov)
month-on-month 0.2 pct -0.4 pct
year-on-year 2.6 pct 3.1 pct
FRENCH CPI (Nov)
month-on-month -0.3 pct 0.1 pct
year-on-year 1.2 pct 1.8 pct
Italian GDP (Q3)
quarter-on-quarter 0.2 pct 0.0 pct
year-on-year 1.9 pct 2.1 pct
Italian Cities CPI (Nov)
month-on-month unchanged 0.2 pct
year-on-year 2.3 pct 2.4 pct
FRIDAY DEC 21
Italian Retail sales (Oct)
month-on-month unchanged -0.2 pct
year-on-year 0.9 pct 0.4 pct
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