13 December 2001, 14:49  : Forex market outlook and key levels

RAHUL BADHWAR, SENIOR MARKETING MANAGER, HSBC BOMBAY

* EURO/DOLLAR: "While the euro yesterday rallied and closed above downchannel resistance in place since September 2001, daily stochastics and momentum are not supportive of this rally. Stochastics are overbought and displaying negative divergences and the rally in the euro has not been confirmed via momentum studies."
* DOLLAR/YEN: "Daily stochastics are overbought and have had a negative crossover and thus the dollar is likely to be nearing a top. Immediate resistance at 126.35 and we need a rally past this level as an initial confirmation that a rally past 126.85 is happening."
* STERLING/DOLLAR: "Given that daily stochastics are now highly overbought, the rally should run out of steam at this channel resistance and ideally after yesterday's strong bull candle, today should be a bearish candle -- dark could cover, hanging man or shooting star."
* DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "If the current selloff has lower to go then we will see the dollar close below trendline support at 1.6440 again today. A close back above will mean that yesterday's breakout was false. For now, as long as 1.6520 is capping the upside a bearish stance is preferred and thus we recommend a counter trade to our euro view just in case euro/dollar is in an uptrend."
* EURO/YEN: "For now we would prefer to stick with our view that euro/yen is toppish. Daily stochastics are highly overbought and have had a negative crossover abd daily momentum is not supportive of euro/yen." **

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