13 December 2001, 09:13  : U.S. Leading Employment Index Points to Continued Weakness

ECRI's Leading Employment Index (LEI), designed to anticipate cyclical turns in employment conditions, was unchanged at 119.4 (1992=100) in November, while its smoothed annualized growth rate rose to -7.5% from -8.8% (see link for charts). A decline in overtime hours in manufacturing was neutralized by a slight increase in the average employment diffusion index, along with a drop in initial jobless claims.
ECRI's Coincident Employment Index (CEI), which tracks current employment conditions, fell to 117.7 (1992=100) in November from 118.2 in October, while its smoothed annualized growth rate dropped to -2.7% from -2.1%. The index was pulled down by declines in civilian employment, nonagricultural employment and nonfarm payroll jobs, along with a jump in the jobless rate.
The CEI is in a strong recessionary downtrend, following an earlier drop in the LEI which remains in a downtrend. Thus, labor market conditions are likely to stay gloomy for now.

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