12 December 2001, 12:46  : Forex market views and key levels

JAMES CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM:

EURO/DOLLAR: "The one-week cycle is in its bust phase, keeping downward pressure on the market from the $0.8923 high. This action though is corrective in nature, and is holding well above the $0.8870 area. It marks the 61.8 percent retracement of the $0.8838-$0.8923 wave (i) of rise, a common target for a wave (ii). As long as this area continues to hold, the next big move should be another run higher in wave (iii) of . Ultimately, wave ((c)) will move above the $0.8952 and $0.8991 resistances, finally topping in the $0.9096/$0.9110 zone."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "The decline from 1.6740 francs is a correction that should continue to hold above the 1.6563 francs support. This level marks the 61.8 percent retracement of the 1.6454-1.6740 francs advance. As long as it holds, the developing short-term bull channel should remain safe. While this bull currently stands in contrast with the euro/dollar outlook, there's nothing that says a sharp rally in the euro/Swiss franc cannot unfold. An eventual move above the 1.6768 francs trend high will pave the way for a run toward the 1.7126 francs wave (B) high."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "The push higher from $1.4135 has turned into a struggle. This wave structure continues to grind higher but with declining upward momentum. As the market traces higher highs and higher lows, there's no reason to abandon our ideal $1.4396/$1.4435 target zone for wave . A test there is likely in the near run. Then, pressure from the one-week cycle -- it is currently in its plateau phase -- will likely spark a resumption of the bear trend in the wave 3 position. Keep an eye on the $1.4268 reaction low. A break there would be the first warning of a bear."
DOLLAR/YEN: "The pullback from 126.40 yen held above the 125.60 yen (38.2 percent retracement of 124.30 yen-126.40 yen) to 125.50/36 yen (previous fourth wave) support zone, bottoming at 125.64 yen. From there, the bull trend is resuming in the wave "v" position. It should move above the 126.40 yen wave iii high and head toward the 126.73 yen area, where it will equal the distance traveled in wave i. Nearby is the 126.82 yen April high, with our ideal target range at 127.28/68 yen. Once wave "v" is complete, we should witness a notable corrective decline. A break of 125.64 yen after a new trend high will be the first signal of a wave correction unfolding lower."

JOSEPH KLETTNER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK:

EURO/DOLLAR: "Trade recommendation: Long from $0.8866 risking $0.8831. Sell longs at Tuesday's opening and leave a buy on stop at $0.8943. Although it was quite promising for the bulls when the market violated $0.8866, the last key pivot on the short-term 3-day swing chart on Nov. 28, we were a bit disappointed when the sell-off from $0.8983, the Nov. 30 high failed to hold this week's key support of $0.8907/$0.8871. The penetration of $0.8871 leaves the euro vulnerable to further weakness and a retest of the Nov. 23 low of $0.8730 which now represents the last key pivot within the recent short-term uptrend that began from $0.8730.
"Resistance now stands at $0.8907/43. Failure here on a rebound from Monday's low of $0.8841 would increase the odds of a retest of $0.8730. The only way the euro/dollar could reverse Monday's breach of $0.8871 is by rallying back above $0.8943 but that doesn't seem likely now. A decline now below $0.8730 would once again bring the July 2001 and October 2000 low of $0.8350/$0.8228 back into focus. A break of triple bottoms at $0.8840, a break of the rising 45 degree trendline on the 20X60 at $0.8820 and a break of $0.8826, the 61.8 percent retracement of the advance from $0.8730 may be the next signal to imply that a decline to $0.8730 is in progress.
DOLLAR/YEN: "Trade recommendation: Long from 122.64 yen risking 122.81 yen. Prices rallied to 124.58 yen on Nov. 27 after the correction from the Oct. 25 high of 123.37 yen bottomed at 119.69 yen on Nov. 12. Since the November peak of 124.58 yen, we saw another abc correction that bottomed at 122.82 yen on Nov. 30. Since then, prices have rallied up through resistance at 124.06 yen on Dec. 4 to a high of 126.39 yen on Monday.
"Monday's high and penetration of 126.15 yen, the monthly pivot enhanced our bullish outlook for the dollar since it had turned the long-term trend bullish for the first time since the September low of 115.84 yen. Resistance is now seen at 126.84 yen/127.38 yen. This area represents the April high and the level where the upper two percent trading band will be at Tuesday's opening. Initially the market may have a difficult time breaking above this resistance area but once it's cleared it may spur a buying panic from those that have been waiting on the sidelines for a pullback to develop. At that point, we wouldn't be surprised to see a quick rally that pushes well into the 130's.
"However, if in the near-term, the advance stalls before the resistance mentioned above, we would expect setbacks to be shallow with support at 124.52/16 yen expected to maintain the pullback before the advance into the 130.00 yen area continues."

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