11 December 2001, 12:27  : Currency markets subdued as traders await Fed

By Robin Shepherd
Major foreign currencies were little moved on Tuesday as markets paused ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement due later at which a quarter point cut to 1.75 percent is widely expected.
The beleagured yen was as flat as the dollar and the euro, but remained within striking distance of year-to-date lows against the greenback after astoundingly poor economic data released on Monday.
Analysts said markets would be particularly interested in the Fed statement accompanying the rate decision for clues as to how soon the U.S. economy is expected to emerge from recession and, with that in mind, what kind of bias the Fed would be keeping for monetary policy.
"The main story for today in the foreign exchange markets will be the Fed meeting. There's not a great deal of uncertainty about the outcome -- 25 basis points is expected. Perhaps more important will be whether the Fed keeps an easing bias," said Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World Markets.
The dollar was trading at around $0.8915 to the euro at 0840 GMT, with the yen hovering around 125.95 to the dollar . Neither currency pair was much changed from the previous New York close.

FED EXPECTED TO CUT BY QUARTER POINT
Most analysts and traders questioned by expect a U.S. interest rate cut of 25 basis points when the Fed announcement comes at 1915 GMT.
Such sentiments were echoed in a survey of U.S. bond dealers on Monday.
The Bond Market Association's Economic Advisory Committee also forecast the U.S. economy would contract through the first quarter of 2002 before growing again by the second quarter.
The committee forecast a "modest" return to growth in Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter, which would accelerate to between 3.5 percent and four percent in the second half of the year.
"I think the Fed decision is not really in great doubt. It's got to be 25 basis points and there is only a slight risk of 50. I think the foreign currency markets will be more interested in what the Fed says than what it does," said one trader.
In early data, France's November consumer price index was down 0.3 percent month on month on an EU-harmonised basis but rose by an annualised 1.3 percent. Dollar/euro was unmoved by the news.

JAPAN LIKELY TO REMAIN BIG STORY
Analysts said that when the dust had settled after the Fed meeting, the state of the Japanese economy and the yen were likely to move back into focus.
On Monday, government October data showed that private-sector machinery orders, a key gauge of capital spending, fell to their lowest level for 14 years.
Those figures followed hard on the heels of gross domestic product data that showed the Japanese economy slipping into recession.
"Worries over Japan's financial system are also behind the yen's weakening," said Kazunari Kobayashi, managing director at State Street in Tokyo.
With the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Tankan survey due out overnight, markets were bracing for yet another round of unsettling news.
"At the start of the week the main story was the weaker yen and I think it will be the main story at the end of the week," said Childe-Freeman adding that there was some trepidation as to what the Tankan survey would reveal.
With extremely bearish economic sentiment weighing heavily on the yen, the much talked about issue of foreign bond buying resurfaced again.
BOJ board member Nobuyuki Nakahara said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan should buy foreign bonds -- a policy that has been widely touted as a possible way of weakening the yen and giving the economy a filip via cheaper exports.

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