9 November 2001, 17:13 OUTLOOK Euro zone data next week to vindicate ECB's bold rate cut
LONDON (AFX) - Euro zone figures due for release next week are
expected to vindicate the European Central Bank's unexpectedly bold
interest rate cut of 50 basis points, according to economists.
Economists said the figures are likely to confirm the decline in
euro zone inflation and contraction in economic activity which prompted
the ECB to cut rates so decisively.
They said euro zone final consumer prices for October should have
little capacity to surprise following the first estimate on Nov 5. It
showed inflation dropped to 2.4 pct year-on-year, the lowest level
since August last year.
Economists said preliminary economic growth figures from Italy and
the Netherlands will give an early indication of third-quarter activity
in the euro zone.
Italian gross domestic product is expected to show a decline over
the third quarter, while growth in the Netherlands is likely to have
flattened out, economists said.
"At more than three times the size of the Dutch economy, the
Italian data is likely to attract the most attention. But the
information content of the Italian data will be limited," UBS Warburg
economist Edward Stansfield said.
Economists warned that while Germany is likely to post sharply
lower retail sales for September, compared with August, the figures are
notoriously volatile and therefore may give misleading signals about
euro zone trends.
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