TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Cabinet Office said it has revised its year to March real GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.9 pct, reversing a previous estimate of a rise of 1.7 pct.
The Cabinet Office also downgraded the year to March nominal GDP estimate to a 2.3 pct decline from its previous forecast of a 1.0 pct rise.
The agency said the new GDP targets can be achieved even if Japan posts a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.3 pct in the real base and a contraction of 0.1 pct in the nominal base in the remaining quarters.
The revised outlook assumes that the dollar will average 121.8 yen, compared with the previous estimate of 109 yen and that crude oil price will average 25.8 usd per barrel, compared with 31.7.
Th e agency also assumed that global GDP, excluding, Japan, will rise 1.3 pct, compared with a 3.4 pct growth forecast earlier.
The office provided the following revised sectoral breakdown of percentage point contributions to the year to March GDP (compared with the previous forecast):
Domestic demand - minus 0.4 pct pts (plus 1.7)
Private demand - minus 0.5 pct pts (plus 1.5)
Public sector demand - plus 0.1 pct pts (plus 0.2)
Net exports - minus 0.6 pct pts (neutral)

The agency provided the following details of forecasts for percentage movements for the year to March (compared with previous forecasts):
Private consumption - up 0.5 pct (up 1.5)
Residential investment - down 3.3 pct (up 3.8)
Non-residential investment - down 8.0 pct (down 1.9)
Public investment - down 4.3 pct (down 3.2)
Public spending - up 2.8 pct, unchanged

The agency provided the following breakdown of its forecasts for year to March unemployment, industrial output prices and other indicators (compared with previous forecasts):
Unemployment - 5.2 pct (4.5)
Industrial output - down 9.5 pct (up 2.4)
Domestic WPI - down 1.1 pct (down 0.4)
CPI - down 0.8 pct (down 0.2 pct)
Current account surplus - 9.4 trln yen (11.7 trln)
Trade surplus - 8.2 trln yen (11.6 trln)
Goods/service account surplus - 2.6 trln yen (6.0 trln)
Exports - 44.6 trln yen (51.6 trln)
Imports - 36.5 trln yen (40.0 trln)
Employee incomes - down 0.8 pct (up 1.6 pct)