BIRMINGHAM, England (AFX) - The Confederation of British Industry said it remains firm in its belief that the UK economy will avoid recession, even as the global market downturn deepens after the Sept 11 atrocities in the US. In a speech at the opening of the group's annual conference here, CBI president Iain Vallance told over 700 delegates that the UK "looks to be encouragingly resilient" even as consumer confidence has started to show signs of easing after the terror attacks in New York and Washington. GDP growth, he stressed, should be sustained over the next three to four quarters, but at rates "half a point slower than previously expected." "In these early days, the message for the UK is generally a healthy one. There will be difficult times to come but full-scale recession is unlikely," Vallance said. Some key sectors, including air travel, tourism, and insurance, should be worst-hit by the turmoil. A further "unforeseen" deterioration in prospects across the rest of the world would "surely" have knock-on effects upon the UK. Overall, however, "there is no reason for UK business to be downhearted." Otherwise, "if we let ourselves become downhearted, we shall have created a self-fulfilling prophecy of gloom and doom," he said. "That's the best way of bringing about a UK recession... so let's avoid it if we can," he concluded.