5 November 2001, 09:05  Forex - Dollar firmer in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of FOMC meeting

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was firmer on position-adjustment ahead of tomorrow's US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, dealers said. Market expectation has leaned towards the FOMC making a 50 basis point rate cut, rather than a 25 basis point cut following the release last week of a series of poor economic data. On Friday, the US Labour Department announced that total nonfarm payroll employment fell 415,000 in October from September, the largest drop since May 1980. The unemployment rate in October, meanwhile, rose to 5.4 pct from 4.9 pct in September, reaching the highest level since Dec 1996, and recording the largest one-month climb since May 1980. Sanwa Research Institute economist Masatoshi Moriyama said he expects the US FOMC to decide on a 50 basis point rate cut, to help the market, consumers and corporate managers maintain their confidence in the monetary authority's ability to deal with the tough situation surrounding the US economy. BNP Paribas foreign exchange general manager Takashi Nakata, however, said a 50 basis point rate cut may not support sentiment towards the dollar, adding that "the solid performance on the US capital markets last week indicated that the markets were already prepared for a large rate cut". Worries over the financial crisis in Argentina, the extent of bio-terrorism in the US and the length of the military operation in Afghanistan will also weigh on the dollar's top-side, dealers said. "But, given the fact that the dollar did not show any strong reaction to any of this news last week, the unit is most likely to continue to be traded in the 121-123 yen range this week, if there are no fresh developments," Nakata said. The euro was lower due to uncertainty over monetary policy management by the European Central Bank, although the consensus view in the market is that the ECB will offer a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's meeting, dealers said. "Even if there is a rate cut by the ECB, however, any gains in the euro are likely to be limited to around the 0.91 usd level," Nakata said. "But, if there is no rate cut, the euro may be pushed towards its recent low."

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