TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
JAPAN SEPT LEADING INDEX, Monday (2:00 pm):
-- 37.5-42.9 pts (55.6; consensus 37.5) Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "Only the leading diffusion index has remained resolutely upbeat although it is difficult to see how this can possibly be sustained. The OECD set of leading indicators due Friday are far more cautious on the outlook for Japan, rather more justifiably one might think."
HSBC wrote: "In September, the leading DI probably fell back to the level below the benchmark of 50 after the 55.6 recorded in the previous month. We expect four indicators out of seven to deteriorate compared with three months ago. Only money supply, building construction and housing starts will improve."
Merrill Lynch wrote: "The leading DI recorded the second straight above-50 pct mark in August, which would have been a sign of an economic recovery by the beginning of next year. However, it is not expected to sustain the trend but is likely to fall below the cut-off line. The September result will still be just one component short, as readings for construction data have been contributing positively since their July strength. However, its sustainability is now in question, with construction orders falling in September. The Leader may be turning lower again."

JAPAN SEPT ALL-HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Tuesday (2:00 pm): -- down 1.3-3.1 pct yr-on-yr (down 1.1; consensus down 1.8) Merrill Lynch wrote: "Real consumption spending at worker households (about two-thirds of all multi-member households) rebounded 1.3 pct month-on-month, with year-on-year still down 1.3 pct. The all-household result is expected to show a larger month-on-month rebound, with a larger year-on-year decline, because of a sharp swing of spending at non-worker households in September last year. The forecast month-on-month rise would still leave all-household real consumption spending slightly down quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter."
HSBC wrote: "In September, all households' spending is likely to have declined 1.5 pct year-on-year in real terms, falling for the sixth consecutive month. Consumption fundamentals are deteriorating drastically, as seen in the September unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.3 pct, the worst on record."

JAPAN OCT DOMESTIC WPI, Thursday (8:50 am):
-- down 0.1-0.5 pct mth-on-mth (down 0.2; consensus down down 0.3) -- down 0.8-1.3 pct yr-on-yr (down 1.1; consensus down 1.0) Merrill Lynch wrote: "The domestic WPI is forecast to register a relatively large month-on-month drop. This largely reflects the usual impact from an end to the summer surcharge for electricity. We saw a 0.4 pct month-on-month dip in October last year. Year-on-year declines of the domestic WPI are likely to remain steady at a cyclical low." HSBC wrote: "In October, the domestic WPI is expected to have declined 0.2 pct on the month and to have fallen 0.9 pct year-on-year, down for 13 consecutive months on a year-on-year comparison. Due to the sharp economic slowdown, deflationary pressure is strengthening."

JAPAN OCT M2+CDS, Thursday (8:50 am):
-- up 3.6-3.7 pct mth-on-mth (up 3.7; consensus up 3.7) Merrill Lynch wrote: "Money supply data are likely to be largely stable from September. M2+CDs are still benefiting from outflows of postal savings. Demand for cash and highly liquid deposits remain buoyed, while that for money in general, especially broader aggregates, remain sluggish."
HSBC wrote: "Given that a shift of funds from postal-savings deposits to cash or bank deposits peaked out in July, M2+CDs growth is likely to have moved sideways at 3.7 pct year-on-year in October. The growth could start slowing down in the coming months."

JAPAN SEPT PRIVATE MACHINERY ORDERS, Thursday (2:00 pm): -- down 5.0-18.8 pct mth-on-mth (up 8.7; consensus down 10.1) -- down 5.3-17.6 pct yr-on-yr (down 13.4; consensus down 9.0) ING Baring wrote: "Machinery orders are likely to slip back after strength in August. Amid growing gloom on industrial production, labour demand and corporate profits, the machinery orders series is proving remarkably resilient. Orders in September are expected to drop back, but mainly in reaction to a surprising 8.7 pct month-on-month rise in August. Attention will also focus on the government forecast for fourth quarter orders because so far demand for capital equipment has not fallen as much as the weakness in profits implies."
UBS Warburg wrote: "Although August data was quite bullish ... we expect further contraction of capex demand both for domestic and overseas."
HSBC wrote: "Private machinery orders are likely to have fallen a huge 10.1 pct month-on-month in September, after a one-off rebound in the previous month. This would result in July-September orders dropping 6.9 pct quarter-on-quarter, falling short of the Cabinet Office's outlook of minus 5.1 pct. This should indicate that machinery orders are clearly trending down."
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Core machinery orders are expected to give back almost all their gains in August. Manufacturer orders probably declined slightly, while non-manufacturer orders likely more than erased the sharp increase in August. The forecast results would still leave both manufacturers and non-manufacturers doing better than the ESRI's respective forecasts for the third quarter. That may actually be not too surprising, as the achievement ratios were showing signs of improvement. Along with the September figures, the release of ESRI's fourth quarter forecast, based on surveys in late September, will be of great interest. Will it show an extension of the improving trend or a sign of reversal after the economic deterioration in September and the terrorist attack? The latter seems more likely."