29 November 2001, 10:25 : Forex market views and key levels
MACNEIL CURRY, TECHNICAL ANALYST, IDEAGLOBAL:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Basically on a very short term, there's a
head-and-shoulders bottom forming on the hourly charts. The
neckline was at 88.35/40 cents and we've broken above it, which
targets 89.35 cents area. We could get up there, but there is
big resistance at the 89 cents figure, which coincides with
200-day moving average and a daily neckline on a
head-and-shoulders top which really has been unfolding since
August. I suspect that will hold, and we could get up to 89.35
cents as an intra-day high. From there we should reverse lower
over the next week or two to 84.50 cents area, which on a
weekly chart is triangle support. We've been in symmetrical
triangle since Oct. 2000. The 93.35 cents high from Sept. 17
was the last time we tested triangle resistance, and from there
we should get a push lower. This could take four weeks to
unfold, but the year-end target is in the 84.50 cents area."
DOLLAR/YEN: "I think we've got further potential on
downside, and looking at the daily charts the daily RSI is
forming bearish divergence from overbought levels. On the
weekly charts, there's trendline resistance at 125.10 yen. We
had a failure into there and we should get a decline lower. I'm
not so sure if we're going to get a test of 115.80 yen low from
September, but basically we're in some kind of expanding
trading range from the April 2001 high of 126.82 yen. I suspect
this trading range will probably hold. In the shorter term, for
the past 2-1/2 months we've been in a bull channel, which is
found at 125.70 yen, and support at 120.90 yen, so we'll
probably trade down to there."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Like the euro, sterling has just
completed a short-term head-and-shoulders bottom with a
neckline at $1.42 area. The upside is targeted toward
$1.4350/60 area. That coincides with the 200-day moving
average, which is supported by nice roll high on daily
oscillators. I don't see anything preventing us from going
higher toward $1.4535, simply because decline from $1.4835 Oct.
5 high has unfolded in three waves, with the two declining
waves being equidistant from one another, which implies
correction. But whether we take out the $1.4835 high...I'm not
exactly sure because longer term...I think we take out $1.3680
June low. It's got further room to run on the downside."
KEITH RAPHAEL, PRESIDENT, CROSS CURRENTS INVESTMENT
ADVISORY:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Where we're sitting at right now...is neutral
between 87.90 cents and 88.70 cents, so its a slight dollar
correction led by dollar/yen. The euro is neutral in the
short-term, but I still expect it will turn down by the end of
the year to 86.50 cents, then 84.25 cents. Even if we close
today above 88.55 cents, which is my line in the sand, we could
see it reach 89.50 cents and then start drifting lower again.
For now, I don't see any kind of dramatic dollar decline yet
unless equities start to erode from where we are now."
DOLLAR/YEN: "There's a 3 percent rally over the past three
weeks, and it looks very tired near 124.50 yen. I expect a dip
to 122.75 yen, then consolidate around 123.70 yen into
Thursday. Basically we're sideways all around in the dollar in
about a 1 percent range for the rest of the week."
THOMAS FITZPATRICK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CITIBANK:
EURO/DOLLAR: "We have already articulated our existing sub
$0.8400 target as a consequence of the head and shoulders
completed on Nov. 13. Following its high at $0.9120 on Nov. 1,
euro/dollar fell for 16 days to a low of $0.8730 on Nov. 23. It
has since rallied for four days peaking at $0.8868 today.
Today's open at $0.8833 is exactly the same level it opened on,
the day we peaked at $0.8880 in May (the doji day). If we see
no topside follow through today, it may suggest a peak in the
correction."
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