29 November 2001, 10:25  : Forex market views and key levels

MACNEIL CURRY, TECHNICAL ANALYST, IDEAGLOBAL:

EURO/DOLLAR: "Basically on a very short term, there's a head-and-shoulders bottom forming on the hourly charts. The neckline was at 88.35/40 cents and we've broken above it, which targets 89.35 cents area. We could get up there, but there is big resistance at the 89 cents figure, which coincides with 200-day moving average and a daily neckline on a head-and-shoulders top which really has been unfolding since August. I suspect that will hold, and we could get up to 89.35 cents as an intra-day high. From there we should reverse lower over the next week or two to 84.50 cents area, which on a weekly chart is triangle support. We've been in symmetrical triangle since Oct. 2000. The 93.35 cents high from Sept. 17 was the last time we tested triangle resistance, and from there we should get a push lower. This could take four weeks to unfold, but the year-end target is in the 84.50 cents area."
DOLLAR/YEN: "I think we've got further potential on downside, and looking at the daily charts the daily RSI is forming bearish divergence from overbought levels. On the weekly charts, there's trendline resistance at 125.10 yen. We had a failure into there and we should get a decline lower. I'm not so sure if we're going to get a test of 115.80 yen low from September, but basically we're in some kind of expanding trading range from the April 2001 high of 126.82 yen. I suspect this trading range will probably hold. In the shorter term, for the past 2-1/2 months we've been in a bull channel, which is found at 125.70 yen, and support at 120.90 yen, so we'll probably trade down to there."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Like the euro, sterling has just completed a short-term head-and-shoulders bottom with a neckline at $1.42 area. The upside is targeted toward $1.4350/60 area. That coincides with the 200-day moving average, which is supported by nice roll high on daily oscillators. I don't see anything preventing us from going higher toward $1.4535, simply because decline from $1.4835 Oct. 5 high has unfolded in three waves, with the two declining waves being equidistant from one another, which implies correction. But whether we take out the $1.4835 high...I'm not exactly sure because longer term...I think we take out $1.3680 June low. It's got further room to run on the downside."

KEITH RAPHAEL, PRESIDENT, CROSS CURRENTS INVESTMENT ADVISORY:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Where we're sitting at right now...is neutral between 87.90 cents and 88.70 cents, so its a slight dollar correction led by dollar/yen. The euro is neutral in the short-term, but I still expect it will turn down by the end of the year to 86.50 cents, then 84.25 cents. Even if we close today above 88.55 cents, which is my line in the sand, we could see it reach 89.50 cents and then start drifting lower again. For now, I don't see any kind of dramatic dollar decline yet unless equities start to erode from where we are now."
DOLLAR/YEN: "There's a 3 percent rally over the past three weeks, and it looks very tired near 124.50 yen. I expect a dip to 122.75 yen, then consolidate around 123.70 yen into Thursday. Basically we're sideways all around in the dollar in about a 1 percent range for the rest of the week."

THOMAS FITZPATRICK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CITIBANK:
EURO/DOLLAR: "We have already articulated our existing sub $0.8400 target as a consequence of the head and shoulders completed on Nov. 13. Following its high at $0.9120 on Nov. 1, euro/dollar fell for 16 days to a low of $0.8730 on Nov. 23. It has since rallied for four days peaking at $0.8868 today. Today's open at $0.8833 is exactly the same level it opened on, the day we peaked at $0.8880 in May (the doji day). If we see no topside follow through today, it may suggest a peak in the correction."

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