28 November 2001, 16:42  Fed's Poole: Consumer conf. held up 'pretty well'

ST. LOUIS (Dow Jones)--Consumer confidence has held up "pretty well," and retail activity, on the whole, has held up "pretty well" said St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole. Speaking to reporters following a speech Tuesday evening to a Financial Executive's Institute dinner in St. Louis, Poole said Sept. 11 events affected retail and airline activity in the immediate aftermath, but that the population as a whole is gradually moving forward. He noted that retail sales are down a little, but that October auto sales were strong, a factor he said should not be dismissed. Poole noted there's been a shift by consumers to discount stores. Poole said he's not sure quite what to make of that, but that perhaps it means there's a willingness to spend and to do so where consumers think they are being more frugal. In discussing consumer confidence, Poole reiterated that he doesn't think that the consumer confidence survey data is a particularly good predictor of consumption spending. He also reiterated that a better measure of consumer confidence is housing related activity, such as housing starts and sales, because those are very large commitments with people putting down money and not just answering survey questions. In discussing his view on the Federal Funds rate, Poole said he doesn't think a person should feel any differently about making a rate move when the Federal Funds rate is at five as to when it's at two, if a person thinks it will be constructive for the way in which the economy is functioning. Poole again said that the Federal Reserve isn't running out of ammunition. "The only stopping place that I see is zero and if going to zero is constructive, then we ought to do it," Poole said, adding that that is not a forecast. Responding to a question about deflation, Poole noted some prices are going up, such as college tuition and medical insurance, while productivity gains are driving other prices down.

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