28 November 2001, 08:58  : Forex market views and key levels

ALEX BROMBERG, TECHNICAL ANALYST, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES:

DOLLAR/YEN: "Today the chart reached the very important and long-expected resistance line, drawn through April 2-3 highs and then through July 9-10 ones. The day's high of 124.60 yen was right on that line and the chart would need to break through this resistance in order to head toward the previous highs of 126.14 yen (July 6) and then 126.82 yen (April 2)."
"Though the line looks pretty strong and I don't think that we'll see the breakthrough right away, but please note that daily stochastic is already overbought."
"The Nov. 19 high of 123.49 yen and Oct. 25 high of 123.35 yen may now turn into significant support levels. The slightly rising line, connecting these two highs is now at 123.53 yen and probably represents the most immediate support."
"Former strong resistance, drawn through July 9, 18, 30 and Oct. 25 highs, may now become a strong support at 122.50-55 yen. If the move is over for the time being and we are going to see some downward retracement, Fibonacci support levels of the last wave (from Nov. 12-27) are at 122.70 yen, 122.10 yen and 121.50 yen."

JOSEPH KLETTNER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK:

EURO/DOLLAR: "So far, the decline from the Nov. 12 high of $0.9016 has found support at Friday's low of $0.8730 just before $0.8724, the 61.8 percent retracement of the advance from the July low of $0.8350. Since then, prices have rallied to $0.8831 on Monday. Monday's advance saw prices break this week's resistance of $0.8792/$0.8828 by a slim margin. Nevertheless, we must view the narrow breach as an indication that a temporary bottom may have occurred following the test of the 61.8 percent retracement level. If so, we must at least expect to see a decent recovery somewhere in the area of $0.8959/.9101. Stronger evidence of a bottom will occur if the advance from Friday's low exceeds $0.8866, the last swing high on the 3-day swing chart. If a recovery to $0.8959/.9101 is underway, we would expect prices to maintain support between $0.8792/56. If this support is violated, we must assume that Monday's marginal breach of resistance was another false break to the upside similar to the one seen on Nov. 12th."
"A break of $0.8724 would be very bearish since this would open the way for further weakness and a test of the July low of $0.8350 and the Oct. 2000 low of $0.8224."

DOLLAR/YEN: "We believe the Sept. 20 low of 115.84 yen completed a big 3-step a-b-c correction from the April high of 126.84 yen. If our Elliott interpretation of the price action from the April high is correct then the Sept. 14 break of 118.30 yen on the monthly swing chart was merely an overshoot not an indication of the direction prices are going to take. If dollar/yen completed wave-c at 115.84 yen and thus the correction from the April high, we should eventually see the long-term swing chart turn bullish but that would require a rally above the July high of 126.15 yen. If 115.80 yen was an important bottom prices should remain above 119.69 yen, the Nov. 12 low which is now the last key pivot on all the short and medium-term swing charts. The recent pullback from 123.37 yen, the Oct. 25 high appears to have bottomed at 119.69 yen just before its previous key pivot of 119.63 yen. Nov. 13 rally through resistance at 120.96/121.32 yen was our earliest confirmation that the correction from 123.37 yen has bottomed. Support now begins at 123.49/13 yen. Near-term resistance is seen at 125.75/126.15 yen, the resistance of the upper 2 percent trading band and the July high."
"The rally through the resistance of the declining 45 degree trendline from the Oct. 25 high of 123.37 yen on Nov.13was another indication that the a-b-c correction from 123.37 yen was completed at the Nov. 12 low of 119.69 yen."

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