26 November 2001, 13:04 OECD says UK may need more rate cuts unless sterling falls sharply
PARIS (AFX) - The Bank of England may have to cut interest rates
further unless a sharp fall in sterling boosts demand and inflation,
the OECD said in its economic survey on the UK.
The OECD said that while the BoE has eased monetary policy
considerably, it "should stand ready to move swiftly" if the imbalances
in the UK economy unwind abruptly or the slowdown is more severe than
expected.
The impact of this year's rate cuts will probably be felt in 2002,
it said.
"Looking ahead and taking into account the heightened downside
risks due to the recent terrorist attacks in the US, further interest
rate cuts might be required, unless a sharp fall in the exchange were
to boost demand and inflation," it said.
The OECD said that "it might be desirable at some point in the
future" for the government to switch the formulation of the BoE's
inflation target to the HICP, the harmonised index used across the
European Union, from the RPI-X, the national measure.
However, the HICP as it currently stands excludes owner-occupied
housing costs, and it may be wise to wait until the EU reaches
agreement on how to include these, the OECD said.
In the event of the adoption of the HICP, the lowering of the BoE's
target of 2.5 pct may become a more prominent issue, it said.
The OECD warned the UK government to weigh the pros and cons of
entering public-private partnerships as a shareholder to reduce its
dependence on the incumbent franchise or concession holders.
It said the UK also faces the challenge of increasing the low level
and modest growth of productivity in the private sector.
"While the thrust of the government's reform agenda is commendable
it should be pursued in a way that fosters greater stability in the
policy environment," it said.
The OECD concluded that the UK's macroeconomic performance has been
robust.
"Growth has slowed only little so far and unemployment has declined
further than most observers expected, without igniting inflationary
pressures," it said.
It said the impressive fiscal consolidation in recent years is
providing ample room for automatic stabilisers to operate in the event
of a sharpening downturn.
Continuing with a focused, prioritised programme of structural
reforms, while preserving the gains from a more stable, predictable
framework for macroeconomic policy, offers the best prospect for
ongoing, strong economic performance in the uncertain global
environment, it said.
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