26 November 2001, 12:44  Forex - Dollar consolidate lower in early London trade; all eyes on stocks

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar consolidated lower against major currencies in early London trade amid a lack of news, dealers said. They added that in the absence of any market moving economic news today either side of the Atlantic, the currencies market will be looking at stocks performance. Just as much attention will be paid to Friday's re-weighting of the MSCI global equity indices which may, they said, herald some volatile activity. Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World Markets said: "We are seeing a little bit of consolidation. There nothing to say from the weekend apart from the report showing that Thanksgiving sales in the US were quite good at plus 4.00 pct." "The market is really starting the week on a rather quiet note. The dollar is loosing a little bit of ground against the euro and the yen but I wouldn't get too worried about it," she added. However, analysts at WestLB voiced caution about further short-term gains in the dollar. "While the US data at the beginning of the week (consumer confidence) may still give some mild support, the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday may be less optimistic on growth than currently priced into the Fed Funds contract," they warned. They further cautioned against the impact of the downward revision in Q3 GDP as well as from the Chicago PMI. They added that Japan's currency downgrade by Fitch IBCA to AA had no major impact. In Europe the release of the EU-12 balance of payment showed that euro zone investors repatriated significant amount of capital in response to Sept 11, pushing the portfolio balance to a euro 43 bln surplus. Childe-Freeman said the data had failed to inspire fresh activity. Meanwhile, the sterling was pushed slightly higher against major currencies. Analysts pointed to Tony Blair's speech which was EMU positive. However, they said market hopes that Blair would announce a fixed timeframe for a euro referendum was not fulfilled and euro/sterling ended lower as market participant s re-focussed on sterling's strong fundamentals. WestLB analysts expect the EMU topic to continue to stay close to the surface, adding that "without the release of more details, GBP bears will have difficulties to gain the upper hand this week, given the MSCI related GBP positive flows."

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