26 November 2001, 12:44 Forex - Dollar consolidate lower in early London trade; all eyes on stocks
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar consolidated lower against major
currencies in early London trade amid a lack of news, dealers said.
They added that in the absence of any market moving economic news
today either side of the Atlantic, the currencies market will be
looking at stocks performance.
Just as much attention will be paid to Friday's re-weighting of the
MSCI global equity indices which may, they said, herald some volatile
activity.
Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World Markets said: "We
are seeing a little bit of consolidation. There nothing to say from the
weekend apart from the report showing that Thanksgiving sales in the US
were quite good at plus 4.00 pct."
"The market is really starting the week on a rather quiet note. The
dollar is loosing a little bit of ground against the euro and the yen
but I wouldn't get too worried about it," she added.
However, analysts at WestLB voiced caution about further short-term
gains in the dollar.
"While the US data at the beginning of the week (consumer
confidence) may still give some mild support, the Fed's Beige Book on
Wednesday may be less optimistic on growth than currently priced into
the Fed Funds contract," they warned.
They further cautioned against the impact of the downward revision
in Q3 GDP as well as from the Chicago PMI.
They added that Japan's currency downgrade by Fitch IBCA to AA had
no major impact.
In Europe the release of the EU-12 balance of payment showed that
euro zone investors repatriated significant amount of capital in
response to Sept 11, pushing the portfolio balance to a euro 43 bln
surplus.
Childe-Freeman said the data had failed to inspire fresh activity.
Meanwhile, the sterling was pushed slightly higher against major
currencies.
Analysts pointed to Tony Blair's speech which was EMU positive.
However, they said market hopes that Blair would announce a fixed
timeframe for a euro referendum was not fulfilled and euro/sterling
ended lower as market participant s re-focussed on sterling's strong
fundamentals.
WestLB analysts expect the EMU topic to continue to stay close to
the surface, adding that "without the release of more details, GBP
bears will have difficulties to gain the upper hand this week, given
the MSCI related GBP positive flows."
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