22 November 2001, 11:49  : Swiss franc gains on dollar, holds strong vs euro

The Swiss franc rose slightly on the dollar and held a firmer tone on the euro in early trade on Thursday, with business seen quiet due to the U.S. Thanksgiving market holiday, dealers said.
The dollar was at 1.6582/87 francs at 0735 GMT, down from 1.6607/13 late on Wednesday.
The euro , closely eyed because of its perceived key role in the next policy decision by the Swiss National Bank [SNB], was at 1.4546/51 francs after Wednesday's late 1.4548/53.
Dealers said the franc remained relatively strong against the euro, which traded close to 1.45 francs, a level seen by industrialists as harmful to Swiss exports and by economists as a hindrance to a quick bottoming-out of the slowing economy.
At these levels, they said the odds were good that the SNB would cut key interest rates in December.
UBS Warburg analysts said the latest economic data had deepened the gloom, citing indicators of a deteriorating labour market, massively declining orders in the labour-intensive construction industry and stagnating prices in the sector.
They said news that the Swiss government was spending another 10 million francs to support the tourism industry reflected worries about the state of the economy and highlighted the impact of the strong franc on foreign trade.
Recent comments from SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth were seen as dovish, improving the odds of an SNB cut on or before December 7, when it is due to publish its quarterly monetary policy statement. Expectations centre on a quarter-point cut.
Roth told the Swiss cabinet the economy slowed faster than expected this year, but prices rose more modestly than forecast.
UBS Warburg analysts said this reflected surprise on the part of the SNB about the brisk downturn in the economy and the low level of inflation rates. They forecast a 50 point rate cut.
"With euro/Swiss sitting on top of important support levels just north of 1.45, a more active SNB could at least help weak Swiss fundamentals (and) stabilise the franc," they said.

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