21 November 2001, 15:19  : TECHNICALS-Forex market outlook and key levels

STEFAN STEINEMANN, TECHNICAL ANALYST, DOLEFIN.COM
* EURO/DOLLAR: "The euro could unfold a tiny triangular consolidation below yesterday's top near $0.8840-45. If so, then the euro should meet support in early Europe near $0.8780, from where another attempt towards $0.8840 could be seen. A failure to go beyond could then indicate the start of a next downleg (probably of exhaustive nature) towards the $0.8675 region. Only a not favoured move beyond $0.8845 could activate the possibility for a retest to the strong resistance around $0.89 (before down). All in all, the downtrend since $0.9330 continues to prevail clearly and this is the case as long as the euro remains below $0.9030."

** GERRY CELAYA, CHIEF STRATEGIST, REDTOWER RESEARCH
* EURO/DOLLAR: "The euro/dollar looks to be pressed lower this morning, market remembering that IFO is likely to be stay weak? Aiming for probes of $0.8770 again, this looks like a bear flag with a break towards $0.8730/8690 on for today, still thinking that downside potential is to $0.8400 on the toppy pattern formed over the last few months. Upticks continue to look capped, with $0.8870/8900 offering near-term bear risk levels. Longer term -- not looking for new lows in the euro/dollar and bottom fishing ahead of $0.8350 is likely, but the charts look pretty terrible (lack of upside momentum or conviction) so the risk is kept on the downside.
* DOLLAR/YEN: "Watch for attempts to break 123.30 on a sustained basis, still like this one to take on 125 over the coming sessions."
* EURO/STERLING: "Euro/sterling is where the action has been -- it saw the move towards 61.00 and then back to 62.20-62.30. We are going to head back down, as the euro loses ground against the dollar, back to 62.00 and then 61.60/65, then towards 61.00."

** TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, CITIBANK
* EURO/DOLLAR: "Price action is coming off, towards the support level and last week's low of $0.8775. The euro traded a little higher yesterday but turned well short of the resistance level at $0.8870. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is neutral, so the momentum in the price is ready for a break. The bias is still to the downside, with the initial target level to break at 0.8775."
* DOLLAR/YEN: "Price action traded down to the support of 122.60 yesterday but is back up, testing the resistance at 123.35 again this morning. A break clear of here would add weight to the upside. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is oversold though, so expect some good resistance here.
* EURO/YEN: "Price action is stuck in a little sideways range at the moment between 108.00 and 108.80. We are really looking for a break-out from this, with further levels at 106.85 and 109.45 to the upside."
* EURO/STERLING: "Price action is starting to come off a little from the resistance level at 62.30 pence. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is overbought, hence lending weight to a further
correction. Support is down at 61.65 pence."
* STERLING/DOLLAR: "Price action corrected higher to resistance at $1.4200 yesterday. Support is at the medium-term level of $1.4125, with a break here opening up a further move down to $1.3950. However, the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is oversold, so some further corrective action higher is likely."
* DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Price action is testing support at 1.6520, with a break clear here leaving the price vulnerable to a move down to 1.6135. Resistance is at 1.6720."

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