19 November 2001, 09:25  : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

ROBERT ZUKOWSKI, TECHNICAL ANALYST, 4CAST INC:

EURO/DOLLAR: "A pretty significant move on the downside in the last few weeks. We had a break down last week from triangle pattern forming since mid-September and the market is basically bouncing back toward that area around 88.90 cents. We are looking for a new sell-off and the market to roll-over to the downside and target the 86.80/60 cents area." "Downside risk beyond there would be the 86 cents level and we'll probably take a breather there. We have been forming a stair-step type decline."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Looks like it has a little more room to extend toward 123.50/124.00 yen. That is a breakdown area that we had going back to August. We'll stall out around there. We are really going to need a significant movement above 124 to say this market is heading to the moon which my charts are not suggesting. So 123.50/124.00 yen appears to be the upside cap. A support level at 121.80 is going to be a pretty important support level on a short-term basis."

STERLING/U.S. DOLLAR: "Grinding back toward that recent low of $1.4195 and we are looking for a short-term base there. Maybe we bounce back to the $1.44 area, but that's it. We'll settle into a range between $1.4195 to $1.44 for the time being. Looking for a short-term bottom set-up at $1.4195 and catch the upside. Right now on the radar screen no sign of a break down below $1.4195 but if we did it would get us bearish in a hurry toward $1.40 level."

ANDREW CHAVERIAT, TECHNICAL ANALYST, PNB PARIBAS:

EURO/DOLLAR: "Overlapping, choppy rise off Wednesday's 0.8770 low appears corrective. How far will the rise go? At the least, this rise is retracing the preceding Monday-Wednesday decline (0.9010-0.8770) and should stall between the 38.2%-50% retracement points at 0.8865-0.8890: the former has capped today's rise, while the latter coincides with resistance from Monday's hourly breakdown point. Between these two levels lies resistance at 0.8870 from the old October low. So we have 3 good resistance points between 0.8865-0.8890 making this a good sell zone. However, a rise above 0.8890 would imply a larger-order retracement to the November decline (0.9110-0.8770) is proceeding with scope toward its 38.2 percent to 50 percent retracement points at 0.8905-0.8945 over the next week. Daily momentum is stabilizing (going from bearish to neutral) while hourly momentum is bullish. This raises the probability of testing the top of the 0.8865-0.8895 resistance zone. Sell rise to 0.8860 (where current corrective rise should stall), stop at 0.8915, targeting resumption of the November decline retesting 0.8770 toward 0.8725 next week."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Day six of consecutive dollar gains. This string of gains shows the power of the charging dollar bulls. It is consistent in Elliott terms with an impulsive wave three rise, where wave one was the initial September-October advance (115.85-123.35), followed by the textbook 50 percent time/price retracement of wave two (123.35-119.70; October-November). This week's rise off 119.70 (Monday's low) represents wave three with a potential magnitude of 162 percent of wave one targeting 131.85 later this year or in early-2002. Today's rise above 122.50 clears the 76.4 percent retracement point of the October -November decline: a close above this threshold would call for re-testing/exceeding the 123.35 October high. A look at the daily chart shows that a rise above 123.35 would have room to run toward 124.70 to test the June-July congestive highs between 124.70-126.10. Hourly double-bottom at 122.00 now the level to buy against."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "The lack of daily momentum (which remains utterly flat) has frustrated this week's attempt by the bulls to post a sustained breakout above the October downtrend. This downtrend resistance now lies at 1.4700. However, price dynamics continue to show great respect for the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement: the August-September decline (1.5240- 1.4400) was followed by a 61.8 percent rebound to 1.4925. Then the September-October rebound (1.4400-1.4925) was followed by a 61.8 percent pullback to 1.4585 hit back on Monday. Then this week's rise (1.4585-1.4735 where a hourly double-top formed) was followed by a 61.8 percent pullback to 1.4635 reached yesterday. This recursive price action suggests Monday's 1.4585 low will hold and anchor an eventual rise above 1.4700/30/35 toward 1.4800 once bullish daily momentum kicks-in. Buy dips toward 1.4660, stop at 1.4625, targeting renewed gains toward 1.4830/1.4875."

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