16 November 2001, 10:10  : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

KEN BOYER, TECHNICAL ANALYST AT STANDARD AND POOR'S MMS:
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Potential is for near term buying opportunities to develop into the sessions ahead. Expectations are for the $0.5110/00 area to essentially hold, at chart and trendline support drawn off of the important Sept. 20 low. Initial support at 0.5170 is vulnerable to giving way late this week, but look for buying to redevelop just below 0.5150.
Looking ahead, the uptrend targets eventual tests in the weeks ahead above 0.5300 in line with the two month uptrending channel."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Immediate attention shifts to the roughly defined 122.50-121.50 yen zone: A developing hourly bearish divergence is noted, and although 121.50/63 is the immediate attraction on upticks, look for profit-taking interest on longs plus some attempts at downside corrective selling plays to develop. Intraday the 122.00 area is the trigger for a downside correction to the 121.50/47 target, before some near term buying interest redevelops."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Rejection yesterday from the 2 percent envelope as well as the previous return line drawn up from the 1.5670 francs low suggest some kind of (corrective) pullback is needed. The 1.6705 area is anticipated to cap today and give scope for a move back toward 1.6554-1.6502. We would actually need to lose support at 1.6422 to favor the downside again. Gains above 1.6705 will trigger a run at 1.6805/20."

JOSEPH KLETTNER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK:
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "For some time, we have been suggesting that before the decline in wave 5 from the Aug. 22 high of $0.5394 is complete, it should unfold in a diagonal 5 wave pattern. So far, we have counted 4 waves down and we were anticipating wave 5 to take prices below .4775 for an important bottom. We were looking for a decline below support at .4956 as a confirmation that the Oct. 15th high of .5173 completed wave 4 and that wave 5 in the diagonal 5 wave decline from .5394 was underway to new lows. However, the decline from .5173, the Oct. 15 high never got below .5001 let alone .4956. As a result, we started to loose faith in this scenario on Nov. 1 when the market rallied from .5001 through resistance at .5096. Sustained strength on Nov. 12 through .5173/76, the last key short and medium-term pivot and the 61.8 percent retracement from .5394 has convinced us that the decline from .5394 has already bottomed at .4823, the Sept. 21 low and that prices are headed back up toward .5394. In the meantime, support for the week remains at .5118/.5082 which we expect will maintain any setbacks from Wednesday's close. Now that prices are through .5176, the only resistance left before .5394 is .5315, the 3 percent trading band.
EURO/DOLLAR: "The lack of upside follow through and the market's inability to sustain itself above the weekly resistance was a clear signal that the rally to $0.9017 on Monday was nothing more than a false break driven by the American Airline crash rather then by market direction. So far, the decline to .8771 on Wednesday from Monday's high has been cushioned by the support of the lower 2 percent trading band which is now situated at .8722. Just before this band, we see additional support at .8736 which represents the 61.8 percent retracement of the advance from the July low of .8350. If any bounces develop from Wednesday's low, we would expect them to be short lived with the market running into strong resistance around the .8894/.9007 area. Failure to get through this resistance should lead to another round of selling with prices testing .8736/22, the two support levels just mentioned. A break of .8736 would be very bearish since this would open the way for further weakness and a test of the July low of .8350 and the Oct. 2000 record low of .8224. In order for the EUR to avoid this scenario the market would have to rally through the .8904/.9007 resistance area."

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