15 November 2001, 09:22 : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels (CHOREK.COM)
JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM:
EURO/DOLLAR: The wave iii decline from $0.9015 has drawn
very close to the .8758 target, where it would have equaled
1.618 of the distance traveled in wave i. While there is still
a chance for a test of this target (or even a push below it),
waning downward momentum warns that we should be on guard for a
corrective period at anytime. Looking at the internal structure
of the wave iii decline, a completed five-wave move may soon
end. Keep in mind that given the ongoing power of the big bear
if I am to err, it will likely be for not holding a bearish
enough stance. So, even if a correction does unfold in the wave
iv position, we should not look for any substantial gains. In
fact, heavy resistance from $0.8832 (previous wave .4 high) to
$0.8867 (.382 of the wave iii decline thus far) should keep a
cap on any correction at this time. These resistance levels are
fitting, given that wave iv should be shallow, alternating with
the sharpness of the correction in wave ii. Ideally, we would
see a period of consolidation possibly a triangle that will
better maintain the bigger bear trend.
DOLLAR/SWISS: While the bull trend remains safe in the big
picture, recent waning upward momentum warns of a possible
corrective period. In fact, a pullback soon would put the bull
on better footing to stage an advance past the 1.6781
resistance and an eventual test of the 1.7126 September 6 high.
A break of the small 1.6633 reaction low would confirm a
noteworthy correction, but don't look for any movement below
1.6545. It marks the .382 retracement of the gains from 1.6206.
As long as it holds, the bull will remain safe.
STERLING/DOLLAR: The wave decline from $1.4619 has
tested important support at $1.4379. It marks the .618
retracement of the wave A rally from $1.4192 to $1.4682. So, we
have to be on guard for a major reversal to the upside at this
time. Remember that only a move below the $1.4308 (.764) would
damage the case for a wave of B bottom and a C rally.
Until then, I'll look for a move above $1.4433 as confirmation
of the bull's return. A bottoming 1-week cycle supports the
possibility of a notable bounce.
DOLLAR/YEN: Topping hourly momentum indicators in
overbought territory warn of a stalling bull. But, the bigger
bullish picture should keep any pullbacks that may develop
shallow. Right now, the 121.29 (reaction low) to 121.11 (.382
of gains from 119.68) is protecting the bull, and only a break
there would trigger a notable correction. Even then, we should
not look for a move below 120.57 (.618). As long as it holds,
we should look for a more sustained move above the 121.95 (.618
of 123.35-119.68) to 122.00 (current high) resistance zone.
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