14 November 2001, 10:24  : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

ANDREW CHAVERIAT, TECHNICAL ANALYST, BNP PARIBAS:

DOLLAR/YEN: "A bullish development today for the dollar as it logs its first three-consecutive-day advance since the Oct. 25 high. This, combined with yesterday's 119.70 yen spike low occurring at a 50 percent time/price retracement, suggests the October-November selloff (123.35-119.70 yen) is complete, laying the way for re-testing and exceeding 123.35 yen. Further evidence of the power of the dollar rally is today's breakout above the late-October downtrend at 120.95 yen. The September 115.85 yen low was a significant long-term low marking termination of a large ABC correction occurring between April-September (126.85-115.85 yen). With this ABC correction complete, the September 115.85 yen low lays the groundwork for renewing the long-standing 1999 rally off 101.30 yen eventually targeting new cycle highs in the 127.50-130 yen area. The recent September-October rally from 115.85-123.35 yen marked the initial advance in what should be a five-wave impulsive rise off the September low. The market then completed a classic 50 percent wave 2 correction (123.35-119.70 yen) Monday, with wave three now underway. Monday's low at 119.70 yen achieved a 50 percent time retracement and nearly a 50 percent price retracement (119.60 yen) to the September-October rally (115.85-123.35 yen) -- effectively attaining a 50 percent time/price pullback via squaring price and time -- a strong signal that selling pressure has been exhausted.
"The market rejected the sub-120 yen area during the past three sessions -- holding above this level on a New York closing basis -- and combined with bearish short-term divergence at yesterday's spike low also suggests the October correction (123.35-119.70 yen) is complete." "Strategy: buy pullback to 120.85 yen; stop loss at 120.25 yen; targeting renewal of the September rally toward 123.35+ yen."
EURO/YEN: "The cross has built a mini-base of support at last week's 106.85 yen low reinforced by the 106.15/105.55 yen September lows. This area may come under attack again this week pressured by bearish daily momentum. Note the recent Thursday -Monday rebound (106.85-108.02 yen) ran out of steam ahead of last week's 108.15/20 yen breakpoint resistance. With dollar/yen apparently having bottomed at yesterday's 119.70 yen low, the cross would normally find some support -- but it is being dragged lower by today's more dramatic euro/dollar breakdown.
"Wave outlook: look for completion of November decline off 110.80 yen as the present wave five decline (off 108.02 yen) targets a test of 106.15-105.55 yen."

ROMAN DUTKEWYCH, TECHNICAL ANALYST, LEHMAN BROTHERS:
EURO/DOLLAR: "I think that 88.70 cents and 89.15 cents are upside resistance points and you need a close above 89.15 cents to saying anything positive now. This was a pretty good break-down here."
"The next big level is 87.25 cents which is 62 percent retracement from the July lows to the highs we had in September. Wait for a strong close before buying again." DOLLAR/YEN: "A sharp reversal today. 121.40 yen and 121.10 yen should act as a good support for the next day. From here we chop back up to 122.60/70 yen area. The decline we had was primarily a liquidation event. This move down to 119.70 yen washed out almost 50 percent of the long positions that have been built up in the market for the past few two weeks. With today's close the broader uptrend in dollar/yen will likely resume."
U.S. DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: "With less than a cent from its all-time high set on Friday, I think there is a very good set up to buy Canada and sell U.S. dollars with a target of C$1.5770. Given that the CRB index has picked up in the last week or so, it may cause some traders to look at the commodity currencies to take advantage of the relationship. Given that Canada has been the worst performer among that class, it might have the most room to go."

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