14 November 2001, 09:52  German economy to remain very weak next year

FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The German federal government's council of independent economic advisors -- the so-called Five Wise Men -- expect the German economy to remain very weak next year, according to reports to be published Wednesday in two German newspapers. The Wise Men's new forecast -- to be officially released Wednesday -- projects German real GDP will grow only 0.6% this year, barely improving to +0.7% in 2002, according to reports in the Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) and the Frankfurter Rundschau. The 0.6% growth figure for this year is only slightly below the 0.75% increase projected by the German government, but the 0.7% growth projection for next year is only half the government's 1.3% forecast. The Rundschau said the 2002 figure mirrors the prediction for German growth next year to be published by the European Commission next week. The economic advisors predict the economy will bottom out in the fourth quarter this year, with an economic upswing occurring "in the course of 2002," according to the Rundschau. German total public deficit is seen by the government advisorycouncil at 2.5% of GDP this year and at 2.3% next year, thus staying uncomfortably close to the 3% limit in the EMU Stability and Growth Pact, the FTD reported. The German inflation rate is forecast by the wise men at 2.5% in 2001 and 1.5% in 2002, the FTD said. The economic slowdown will drive up unemployment to an average of 3.86 million this year and 3.9 million in 2002, the Wise Men project, according to the Rundschau. This means the government will fall well short of its promise to cut joblessness to 3.5 million by the next national election in autumn 2002. Germany's average unemployment rate will come in at 9.4% this year and at 9.7% next year, the FTD said. The five government advisors welcomed the latest 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Furthermore, they expressed support for the budget consolidation course of German Finance Minister Hans Eichel, the FTD said. The wise men also backed the government's decision to abstain from any economic stimulus measures, both newspapers said. "Currently we do not see any need for such measures," the FTD quoted the report as saying. In particular, the panel is against moving up the second tranche of income tax cuts from 2003 to 2002, as proposed by Germany's six major economic research institutes, the Rundschau reported. They also advised unions and management to embrace a "moderate wage policy".

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved