13 November 2001, 08:45 : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
PETER REHMER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, ELLIOTT WAVE
INTERNATIONAL:
EURO/DOLLAR: "It looks like the news driven spike rally in
the euro this morning completed a counter-trend bounce from
last week's low and leads the euro to continue breaking down
with the eventual downside target of 85.60 cents. That is
within the fourth of five legs within the contracting triangle
trading range from the Oct. 2000 low."
"This bearish outlook for the euro is reinforced by the
impulsive declining pattern from today's critical 90.12 cents
high. An equivalent five wave pattern is also apparent on the
dollar/Swiss chart."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Essentially the picture is remarkably
bullish in that from October 2000 to October 2001 it completed
a well-formed flat wave (4) correction, setting the stage for a
move to new 15 year highs. While the rally pattern off the
September low is ugly, ie: suspect, the distinct three wave
pattern off the decline from last week's high paints a loudly
bullish picture. The dollar/Swiss franc looks like it will
accelerate upward within the larger uptrend."
DOLLAR/YEN: "The dollar also looks set to perform
spectacularly well against the yen. We have a clear five month
corrective decline into the September low from which a five way
rally confirms the larger trend was up and that initial rally
has now been 50 percent retraced by a corrective decline so the
dollar/yen is poised to accelerate upward within a move at
least beyond the April 126.83 yen peak."
U.S. DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: "Everybody has been very
excited about dollar/Canada since it broke out to new all-time
highs on Oct. 31. However, the rally from mid-October counts as
a fifth wave in the sequence from early July and that last four
month move is probably the last leg of a two year advance. This
means that this excitement in the dollar/Canada is the extreme
emotion that typically accompanies a change in trend. We are
looking for the dollar/Canada to top out and drop back to at
least C$1.50 going forward."
KEITH RAPHAEL, PRESIDENT, CROSSCURRENTS INVESTMENT
ADVISORY
EURO/DOLLAR: "I expect it to continue down to 88.25 cents
and then see a brief consolidation before continuing down to
86.60 cents into December. Failure today in particular to get
above 90 cents underscored the bearish momentum which exists."
DOLLAR/YEN: "The dollar looks vulnerable only against the
yen which could see it go down to 119.35 yen on Tuesday. This
is based on more bearish medium-term momentum continuing to
pressure the short-term dollar against the yen. 121.30 yen is
the maximum on the upside for the short-term and most likely
117 yen in December on the downside."
EURO/YEN: "The resulting euro/yen cross still looks very
vulnerable to go to 106.25 yen, which is a key medium-term
pivot point. A weekly close below 106.25 yen would commence a
strong move to 101 yen."
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