13 November 2001, 08:45  : TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

PETER REHMER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, ELLIOTT WAVE INTERNATIONAL:

EURO/DOLLAR: "It looks like the news driven spike rally in the euro this morning completed a counter-trend bounce from last week's low and leads the euro to continue breaking down with the eventual downside target of 85.60 cents. That is within the fourth of five legs within the contracting triangle trading range from the Oct. 2000 low."
"This bearish outlook for the euro is reinforced by the impulsive declining pattern from today's critical 90.12 cents high. An equivalent five wave pattern is also apparent on the dollar/Swiss chart."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Essentially the picture is remarkably bullish in that from October 2000 to October 2001 it completed a well-formed flat wave (4) correction, setting the stage for a move to new 15 year highs. While the rally pattern off the September low is ugly, ie: suspect, the distinct three wave pattern off the decline from last week's high paints a loudly bullish picture. The dollar/Swiss franc looks like it will accelerate upward within the larger uptrend."
DOLLAR/YEN: "The dollar also looks set to perform spectacularly well against the yen. We have a clear five month corrective decline into the September low from which a five way rally confirms the larger trend was up and that initial rally has now been 50 percent retraced by a corrective decline so the dollar/yen is poised to accelerate upward within a move at least beyond the April 126.83 yen peak." U.S. DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: "Everybody has been very excited about dollar/Canada since it broke out to new all-time highs on Oct. 31. However, the rally from mid-October counts as a fifth wave in the sequence from early July and that last four month move is probably the last leg of a two year advance. This means that this excitement in the dollar/Canada is the extreme emotion that typically accompanies a change in trend. We are looking for the dollar/Canada to top out and drop back to at least C$1.50 going forward."

KEITH RAPHAEL, PRESIDENT, CROSSCURRENTS INVESTMENT ADVISORY

EURO/DOLLAR: "I expect it to continue down to 88.25 cents and then see a brief consolidation before continuing down to 86.60 cents into December. Failure today in particular to get above 90 cents underscored the bearish momentum which exists."
DOLLAR/YEN: "The dollar looks vulnerable only against the yen which could see it go down to 119.35 yen on Tuesday. This is based on more bearish medium-term momentum continuing to pressure the short-term dollar against the yen. 121.30 yen is the maximum on the upside for the short-term and most likely 117 yen in December on the downside."
EURO/YEN: "The resulting euro/yen cross still looks very vulnerable to go to 106.25 yen, which is a key medium-term pivot point. A weekly close below 106.25 yen would commence a strong move to 101 yen."

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