1 November 2001, 09:47 Forex - Dollar rangebound in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of NAPM, jobs data
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was rangebound in midafternoon trade,
with investors sidelined ahead of the release later today of the US
NAPM report and tomorrow's non-farm payroll data, dealers said.
Bank of Yokohama foreign exchange assistant manager Hiroshi
Ishihara said if the NAPM and non-farm payroll data confirm the
"moderate" deterioration of the US economy in line with the
third-quarter GDP data, the dollar is expected to re-test upside
resistance.
According to the Commerce Department overnight, the US economy
contracted at a 0.4 pct annual rate in the third quarter, the first
decline since the third quarter of 1993 and the largest decline since
the first quarter of 1991, when the economy was last in recession.
But the GDP figure was better than the average forecast by Wall
Street economists of a 1.3 pct contraction.
"If you compare economic fundamentals in Japan and the US, you can
immediately tell Japan is already in a much more inferior condition,
and the situation could worsen further given the deterioration of the
labour market condition," Ishihara said.
According to the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs and
Telecommunications, Japan's unemployment rose to a new high of 5.3 pct
in September.
"The deepening economic problem may increase political incentives
to offer extra budget spending, which could then threaten the rating
status of JGBs," Ishihara said.
"Given such risk, local institutional investors may be inclined to
buy US treasuries further, thereby pressuring the yen."
Ishihara, however, said whether the dollar can confidently top the
123.00 yen level remains to be seen, as the most recent test of that
level was a failure.
"If such test is successful, investors may (next) test the 125.00
yen level," he said.
The euro was firmer on short-covering in the run-up to US data
releases but the upside resistance was strong amid concerns over
emerging evidence of a deterioration in eurozone economic activity,
dealers said.
Bank of Yokohama's Ishihara pointed to the risk of a sharp
appreciation in the euro related to the economic problems.
"If economic problems deepen, European firms may opt to finance
their debt by selling offshore assets, which should fuel strong upward
momentum for the euro, just like Japan experienced in the 1990s," he
said.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved