5 October 2001, 16:48  OUTLOOK 21 out of 33 economists see ECB rate cut Oct 11

PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will cut leading interest rates at next Thursday's governing council meeting in Vienna, according to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse. Of 33 economists polled, 21 predicted that the ECB will cut rates at Thursday's meeting. Eighteen said the council will cut rates by by 25 basis points, taking the minimum bid rate on its main refinancing operations to 3.50 pct, while three predicted a 50 basis point cut to 3.25 pct. The ECB cut the rate to 3.75 pct from 4.25 pct on Sept 17 following the previous week's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. Of the 12 economists not expecting a rate cut at Thursday's meeting, five predicted an easing move at the following meeting on Oct 25, one was undecided between the Oct 11 and 25 meetings and four forecast a cut in November. One predicted a cut at some stage in the fourth quarter after the Oct 11 meeting, and one forecast that the ECB will wait until the first quarter before easing rates again. By the end of the year, most economists - 18 of the 33 polled - expect the refi minimum bid rate to be at 3.25 pct. Seven forecast an end-year rate of 3.50 pct and six 3.00 pct. One predicted a 2.75 pct rate at end-year and one forecast a 3.75 pct figure.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved