5 October 2001, 16:48 OUTLOOK 21 out of 33 economists see ECB rate cut Oct 11
PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will cut leading interest
rates at next Thursday's governing council meeting in Vienna, according
to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse.
Of 33 economists polled, 21 predicted that the ECB will cut rates
at Thursday's meeting.
Eighteen said the council will cut rates by by 25 basis points,
taking the minimum bid rate on its main refinancing operations to 3.50
pct, while three predicted a 50 basis point cut to 3.25 pct.
The ECB cut the rate to 3.75 pct from 4.25 pct on Sept 17 following
the previous week's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.
Of the 12 economists not expecting a rate cut at Thursday's
meeting, five predicted an easing move at the following meeting on Oct
25, one was undecided between the Oct 11 and 25 meetings and four
forecast a cut in November.
One predicted a cut at some stage in the fourth quarter after the
Oct 11 meeting, and one forecast that the ECB will wait until the first
quarter before easing rates again.
By the end of the year, most economists - 18 of the 33 polled -
expect the refi minimum bid rate to be at 3.25 pct. Seven forecast an
end-year rate of 3.50 pct and six 3.00 pct. One predicted a 2.75 pct
rate at end-year and one forecast a 3.75 pct figure.
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