31 October 2001, 16:38 US Q3 GDP down 0.4 pct annualized vs 0.7 rise in Q2
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The US economy contracted at a 0.4 pct annual
rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said.
This is the first decline in US GDP since the Q1 1993 and is the
largest decline since Q1 1991, when the economy was last in recession.
The advance forecast of Q3 GDP growth was above expectations of
Wall Street economists who had expected the economy to contract by 1.3
pct.
Final sales -- GDP growth minus inventory behavior -- were
unchanged in the third quarter, down from a 0.7 pct rise in the second
quarter.
Inflation data in the Q3 GDP report were impacted sharply by
insurance benefit pay outs related to the Sept 11 attacks, the
department said. These pay outs raised the estimate for the chained
weighted price index and lowered the consumption index, a Commerce
spokesman said.
The GDP chain weighted price index rose 2.1 pct, the same as the
second quarter.
Excluding food and energy prices, the GDP chain-weighted index rose
2.6 pct, down from a 1.2 pct rise in the second quarter. This is the
highest core rate since Q1 2000.
The consumption price index fell 0.4 pct in the third quarter,
compared with a 1.3 pct rise in the second quarter. This is the first
decline since the second quarter of 1961.
Excluding the insurance-related effects, the consumption price
index rose 0.8 pct in the third quarter, the department said.
Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index was up 0.3
pct, compared with a 0.7 pct gain in the second quarter. This is the
smallest increase since the government began collecting the data in
1959.
The deceleration in the economy was caused by slowing consumer
spending, a decline in household and business investment and further
draw down in inventories. This was partially offset by a sharp drop in
imports, which is a positive for GDP.
Businesses subtracted 50.4 bln usd from inventories in the third
quarter, compared with a 38.3 bln decline in the prior quarter. This is
the third consecutive quarter of inventory reduction.
The real change in business inventories subtracted 0.37 percentage
points from Q3 GDP growth, after subtracting 0.42 percentage points
during the second quarter.
Consumer spending in the third quarter rose 1.2 pct, after a 2.5
pct rise in the previous quarter. This is the smallest quarterly gain
in consumer spending since the first quarter of 1993.
Business fixed investment fell 11.9 pct, compared with a 14.6 pct
drop in the second quarter. This is third straight quarterly decline in
business fixed investment.
Overall, business and household investment fell 10.7 pct after a
12.1 pct drop in the previous quarter. This is the fifth consecutive
quarterly decline.
Equipment and software investment fell 11.8 pct in the third
quarter after a 15.4 pct drop in the second quarter.
Trade added 0.32 percentage points to Q3 GDP growth, after
subtracting 0.12 percentage points from Q2 GDP growth.
Exports fell 16.6 pct, compared with a 11.9 pct decline in the
second quarter.
Imports fell 15.2 pct, compared with a 8.4 pct decline in the
second quarter.
Government spending added 0.32 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth.
Federal and state and local government spending rose 1.8 pct in the
third quarter after rising 5.0 pct in the second quarter.
The personal savings rate - saving as a percentage of disposable
personal income - rose 3.8 pct in the third quarter, up from 1.1 pct in
the second quarter.
Commerce said that the economic effects of the terrorist attacks on
Sept 11 are included in the Q2 GDP data, but did not attempt to
quantify the total impact because most of the effects cannot easily be
separated out,
This is the first estimate of Q3 GDP growth. The data will be
revised twice before it becomes final. In this estimate, the Commerce
Department assumes a sharp drop in imports and exports in September and
a small increase in September wholesale and retail inventories.
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