29 October 2001, 09:22 OUTLOOK UK economic data next week to show rising consumer credit, fall in PMI
LONDON (AFX) - UK economic figures due out this week are expected
to show a rise in consumer credit but a further decline in the
manufacturing sector, confirming imbalances in the economy, according
to economists.
Bank of America economist Jeremy Hawkins said of the consumer
credit figures: "The signs are that we are going to get at least a
small pick up and if that is confirmed it will be in line with the view
that the UK consumers sector is actually withstanding the global
slowdown better than most other country." .
Economists predicted the Chartered Institute of Purchasing
Surveyors will release figures showing a slowdown in the manufacturing
sector to 45 from 46.5, raising the chances of a Bank of England
interest rate cut. .
Schroder Salomon Smith Barney economists predicted the PMI for
September will reflect the weakness in equities and last month's
terrorist attacks against the US.
"But there is little to fall back on as guidance for the behaviour
of surveys during such unusually uncertain times. Such a reading would
take the index close to the 41.5 low seen at the end of 1998," they
said.
"Such reading would add to the likelihood of a rate cut," they
added.
AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
MONDAY OCT 29
Sept consumer credit (bln stg) 1.3 1.2
THURSDAY NOV 1
Sept manufacturing CIPS index 45 46.5
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