26 October 2001, 13:44 FOCUS - UK GDP provides further evidence economy will avoid recession
----by Pan Pylas----
LONDON (AFX) - There were further indications today that the UK
economy is in a relatively strong position to avoid recession and that
the government can meet its ambitious spending plans to improve public
services, economists said.
First, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
(NIESR) said the UK economy will grow by 2.3 pct this year and 2.1 pct
next, making it the fastest-growing economy among G7 countries.
In addition, official data showed that the UK grew by a
bigger-than-expected 0.6 pct in the third quarter against expectations
of a 0.5 pct rise, largely as a result of a buoyant performance from
the service sector. The figures though are preliminary and may be
revised next month, economists cautioned.
"We are nowhere near recession conditions," said Merrill Lynch
economist Mike Taylor.
However, Taylor is forecasting another 25 basis point reduction
from the Bank of England next month, taking the key repo rate down to
4.25 pct, especially in light of the global uncertainties.
UK consumer confidence figures and US third quarter GDP figures
next week should provide further rationale for another rate cut, he
said.
The Confederation of British Industry's call earlier this week for
a 50 basis point rate reduction is now more unlikely to be met, he
added.
NIESR, however, does not think there is any need for further rate
cuts, unless the economic conditions worsen further. There have already
been six interest rate reductions this year in an effort to stave off
recession.
Adam Cole, economist at HSBC, thinks NIESR is "overly pessimistic
on rates over the near-term" but agrees that the UK economy is looking
good for only just below trend growth next year.
One reason for the UK's outperformance, according to NIESR, is that
the government "is fortuitously administering a major fiscal injection
into the economy".
The institute said that with the economy on course to grow solidly
through next year, there is no reason to fear that the government's
spending plans will prove unsustainable.
The government was re-elected with its second landslide in the
summer on a promise to improve the nation's public services,
particularly health, education and transport.
The uncertainties in the global economy since then have increased
concerns that the government will have to borrow massively to meet its
commitments.
Even if things turn out worse, NIESR notes that the government's
'golden rule' permits a budgetary shortfall during a cyclical downturn,
"provided that is offset by a surplus during an earlier upturn".
Robert Jukes, economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, said the GDP
numbers "provide a strong cushion for growth in the second
half...clearly some reassurance for us growth optimists, particularly
after the disappointing quarterly CBI survey".
Deutsche Bank's Ciaran Barr also noted that the continued strength
of GDP growth provides "an important reason why we have not seen a more
acute rise in unemployment thus far".
Economists expect the claimant count to start rising next month,
however, as substantial job culls from the likes of Marconi PLC and
Rolls-Royce PLC start to impact figures. Under the International Labour
Organisation measure, unemployment is already rising.
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