25 October 2001, 15:24  Forex - Dollar stronger in midday trade ahead of ECB rate decision

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was stronger in midday trade following the overnight rally on Wall Street and uncertainty ahead of the imminent European Central Bank decision, dealers said. With the release of benign German inflation data, a slim majority of economists now expect the European Central Bank to reduce rates this afternoon. Rob Hayward, foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro, thinks that on balance the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points to take the key refi rate to 3.5 pct. "If they don't, there'll be a great impulse to sell the euro," he said. The ECB is due to announce its latest decision at 12.45 pm. Richard Grace at West LB Research thinks the ECB will wait to see what the US Fed does on Nov 6 before acting. This will also allow the ECB to see another round of euro zone industrial production data, retail trade data and selected state inflation data. Confidence in the euro was dealt a blow by a report that the French cabinet has called for a postponement of the Jan 1, 2002 launch of euro notes and coins. Francesca Fornasori, currency economist at Lehman Brothers, said the theme of the day has been the dollar's strength across the board following the overnight recovery of US equities. ABN's Hayward noted the dollar's appreciation against the yen and attributed the performance to comments from Japan's top financial diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda. Kuroda said it was inappropriate for the yen to strengthen and that Japan was watching the currency market. "The comments from Japan gave some people the green light to sell the yen further," said ABN's Haywood. Still ahead are weekly jobless claims and Q3 employment cost index in the US. Focus will also be on US September durable goods orders. None of the growth data is likely to be positive, analysts said.

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