25 October 2001, 15:24 Forex - Dollar stronger in midday trade ahead of ECB rate decision
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was stronger in midday trade following
the overnight rally on Wall Street and uncertainty ahead of the
imminent European Central Bank decision, dealers said.
With the release of benign German inflation data, a slim majority
of economists now expect the European Central Bank to reduce rates this
afternoon.
Rob Hayward, foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro, thinks that
on balance the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points to take the key
refi rate to 3.5 pct.
"If they don't, there'll be a great impulse to sell the euro," he
said.
The ECB is due to announce its latest decision at 12.45 pm.
Richard Grace at West LB Research thinks the ECB will wait to see
what the US Fed does on Nov 6 before acting.
This will also allow the ECB to see another round of euro zone
industrial production data, retail trade data and selected state
inflation data.
Confidence in the euro was dealt a blow by a report that the French
cabinet has called for a postponement of the Jan 1, 2002 launch of euro
notes and coins.
Francesca Fornasori, currency economist at Lehman Brothers, said
the theme of the day has been the dollar's strength across the board
following the overnight recovery of US equities.
ABN's Hayward noted the dollar's appreciation against the yen and
attributed the performance to comments from Japan's top financial
diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda.
Kuroda said it was inappropriate for the yen to strengthen and that
Japan was watching the currency market.
"The comments from Japan gave some people the green light to sell
the yen further," said ABN's Haywood.
Still ahead are weekly jobless claims and Q3 employment cost index
in the US. Focus will also be on US September durable goods orders.
None of the growth data is likely to be positive, analysts said.
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