25 October 2001, 12:47  Forex - Major currencies rangebound in early London trade

LONDON (AFX) - Major currencies were stuck in narrow ranges against each other in early trade, with the Federal Reserve's downbeat pronouncements in its Beige Book keeping the dollar's gains in check. Meanwhile, following the release of benign German inflation data, a slim majority of economists now expect the European Central Bank to reduce rates this afternoon. So far these expectations have not had much impact on the euro, but 4CAST economist Paul Bednarczyk believes the euro will flounder if the rate cut does not come. While the German inflation data and the sharp slide in business confidence throughout Europe could lead the ECB to lower rates, many still doubt the bank's resolve, he said. "Basically, there is not much that is new since the last ECB meeting," Bednarczyk said, adding that the ECB will most likely hold off a rate cut until more evidence trickles through. Richard Grace at West LB Research said the ECB will likely wait to see what the US Fed does on Nov 6 before acting. This will also allow the ECB to see another round of euro zone industrial production data, retail trade data and selected state inflation data. Confidence in the euro was dealt a blow by a report that the French cabinet has called for a postponement of the Jan 1, 2002 launch of euro notes and coins. "French cabinet ministers have suggested that given the state of the world economy and the complications arising from the Sept 11 attacks in the US, the euro's full adoption should be postponed indefinitely until calm is restored around the world," according to a report in the Washington Post. "It seems to be a bad tack to take right now when the euro is not doing very well," Bednarczyk at 4CAST said. Elsewhere, the downbeat Fed Beige Book was keeping dollar gains in check. "Based on information collected before October 15, all of the districts indicated weaker economic activity, which encouraged a strong rally in the bond market. The currency market saw it as more of an opportunity to take a breather," Grace at West LB added. Still ahead are weekly jobless claims and Q3 employment cost index in the US. Focus will also be on US September durable goods orders. None of the growth data is likely to be positive, analysts said. Sterling was a touch weaker after a dismal CBI industrial trends survey yesterday.

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