24 October 2001, 09:38 TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Look for a decline through $0.8822 to clear
the way for a bottom in the 0.8721/.8560 area.
Monday was the ideal timeframe for a 1-week Trading Cycle
low. A cycle may have formed at the 0.8891 low for the day, but
so far we have no confirmation. Until the market moves above
0.8960 (.618 percent of 0.9002-0.8891), we must respect the
power behind the bear trend. Even then, it would take a move
above .9002 to put the bear on hold. For now, focus on the
0.8822 Sept. 6 wave low .
In the big picture, the wave decline from .9136 has
been rather difficult to count. All we can do now is to follow
the trend of lower lows and lower highs down through support
levels. We must remember that the decline from .9136 is the
second -((b))-((c)) pattern within the developing wave D
decline from .9332. The ideal target for wave D has been in the
.8721 (.618 of C) to .8560 (D=.618 of B) area. A bottom there
would likely generate a low-momentum recovery in wave E to
finish the large wave (4) triangle that began back at .8225 in
October 2000.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "In line with our analysis from last
week, the bull has indeed resumed. The move above the 1.6464
francs small high sparked upward acceleration, fueling a burst
through the 1.6526 to 1.6568 area. The latter level is of
particular importance as it marks the .618 retracement of the
1.7126-1.5665 wave (C) of decline. Its penetration
suggests reasonably eliminated the outside chance that the
rally from 1.5665 has been merely a correction. Thus, my
confidence that the move from 1.5665 is a resumption of the
bull in wave is high. Now, the big picture points to a
run at the 1.7126 wave (B) high; eventual penetration there
will target the 1.8226/1.8309 double top.
The wave iii rally from 1.6194 francs has further room to
move higher before we have to worry about a notable correction.
Ideally, it will reach the 1.6734 area, where it will equal the
distance traveled in wave i. A secondary target is at 1.7068,
where it will equal 1.618 of the distance traveled in wave i.
Even when wave iii tops, we should not look for a sharp
reversal. A wave iv correction will be forthcoming, and
normally fourth waves tend to be shallow. The boom position of
the 1-week trading cycle could end on Tuesday, with the plateau
phase occurring on Wednesday. So, wave iv could unfold in the
latter part of the week."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Recently, when the dominant 1-week cycle
headed lower in its bust phase from 121.89 yen, prices
responded little, edging lower within a corrective manner,
holding above the 120.46/42 support. Monday this cycle turned
higher into its boom phase, and prices responded with a sharp
rally. That is typical of a bull trend.
"In terms of wave patterns, Monday's explosive rise above
the 121.89 wave i high confirms the bull's return in the wave
iii position. Wave iii should have little trouble reaching
equality with wave i at 123.02. In fact, given that the 1-week
cycle is still in its boom phase, wave iii will likely push
onward toward 124.45. There, it will equal 1.618 of the
distance traveled in wave i. Once reached, we must be on guard
for a correction in wave iv. But, keep in mind that fourth
waves after powerful third wave rallies tend to be shallow,
sideways affairs. For now, solid support is at 121.42, the
current .618 retracement of the gains from 120.71."
ALEX BROMBERG, TECHNICAL ANALYST, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
SERVICES (NEW YORK INC):
DOLLAR/YEN: "On Monday, dollar/yen broke an important
resistance line, based on July 06, 17 and 30 highs. Today it
confirmed the break at the day's low of 122.27 yen, which was
located right on the line.
As long as it stays above the former resistance line,
currently at 122.20-25, it will eventually target 125 and then
the July highs of 125.35, 125.66 and 126.14, correspondingly.
Initial resistance is provided by the minor line, drawn through
Sept 20-24, then Oct.8-9 lows, and Oct.17 high. Please note
that today's high of 123.05 was right on that rising line.
The former resistance line mentioned earlier is now a potential
support, currently located at 122.25. Below it another very
potential support at strong technical level of 121.70: Oct
11-17 high and the 61.8 percent retracement of a decline from
July 30 high to Sept 20 low.
EURO/DOLLAR: "On Monday, euro/dollar broke the strong
support line, drawn thorough Sept 21 and Oct 11 lows. As long
as it stays below this important former support and current
resistance line -- which is now at $0.8935 -- it may eventually
target the previous Sept 06 low of 0.8820. The September 11 low
of 0.8990 is the possible resistance level. Above it is a
strong declining trendline, connecting Oct.8, 9, 16 and 17
highs. This potential resistance line is now at 0.9005,
declining at a pace of 20 pips a day.
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