24 October 2001, 09:38  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Look for a decline through $0.8822 to clear the way for a bottom in the 0.8721/.8560 area. Monday was the ideal timeframe for a 1-week Trading Cycle low. A cycle may have formed at the 0.8891 low for the day, but so far we have no confirmation. Until the market moves above 0.8960 (.618 percent of 0.9002-0.8891), we must respect the power behind the bear trend. Even then, it would take a move above .9002 to put the bear on hold. For now, focus on the 0.8822 Sept. 6 wave low .
In the big picture, the wave decline from .9136 has been rather difficult to count. All we can do now is to follow the trend of lower lows and lower highs down through support levels. We must remember that the decline from .9136 is the second -((b))-((c)) pattern within the developing wave D decline from .9332. The ideal target for wave D has been in the .8721 (.618 of C) to .8560 (D=.618 of B) area. A bottom there would likely generate a low-momentum recovery in wave E to finish the large wave (4) triangle that began back at .8225 in October 2000.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "In line with our analysis from last week, the bull has indeed resumed. The move above the 1.6464 francs small high sparked upward acceleration, fueling a burst through the 1.6526 to 1.6568 area. The latter level is of particular importance as it marks the .618 retracement of the 1.7126-1.5665 wave (C) of decline. Its penetration suggests reasonably eliminated the outside chance that the rally from 1.5665 has been merely a correction. Thus, my confidence that the move from 1.5665 is a resumption of the bull in wave is high. Now, the big picture points to a run at the 1.7126 wave (B) high; eventual penetration there will target the 1.8226/1.8309 double top.
The wave iii rally from 1.6194 francs has further room to move higher before we have to worry about a notable correction. Ideally, it will reach the 1.6734 area, where it will equal the distance traveled in wave i. A secondary target is at 1.7068, where it will equal 1.618 of the distance traveled in wave i. Even when wave iii tops, we should not look for a sharp reversal. A wave iv correction will be forthcoming, and normally fourth waves tend to be shallow. The boom position of the 1-week trading cycle could end on Tuesday, with the plateau phase occurring on Wednesday. So, wave iv could unfold in the latter part of the week."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Recently, when the dominant 1-week cycle headed lower in its bust phase from 121.89 yen, prices responded little, edging lower within a corrective manner, holding above the 120.46/42 support. Monday this cycle turned higher into its boom phase, and prices responded with a sharp rally. That is typical of a bull trend.
"In terms of wave patterns, Monday's explosive rise above the 121.89 wave i high confirms the bull's return in the wave iii position. Wave iii should have little trouble reaching equality with wave i at 123.02. In fact, given that the 1-week cycle is still in its boom phase, wave iii will likely push onward toward 124.45. There, it will equal 1.618 of the distance traveled in wave i. Once reached, we must be on guard for a correction in wave iv. But, keep in mind that fourth waves after powerful third wave rallies tend to be shallow, sideways affairs. For now, solid support is at 121.42, the current .618 retracement of the gains from 120.71."

ALEX BROMBERG, TECHNICAL ANALYST, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES (NEW YORK INC):
DOLLAR/YEN: "On Monday, dollar/yen broke an important resistance line, based on July 06, 17 and 30 highs. Today it confirmed the break at the day's low of 122.27 yen, which was located right on the line.
As long as it stays above the former resistance line, currently at 122.20-25, it will eventually target 125 and then the July highs of 125.35, 125.66 and 126.14, correspondingly. Initial resistance is provided by the minor line, drawn through Sept 20-24, then Oct.8-9 lows, and Oct.17 high. Please note that today's high of 123.05 was right on that rising line. The former resistance line mentioned earlier is now a potential support, currently located at 122.25. Below it another very potential support at strong technical level of 121.70: Oct 11-17 high and the 61.8 percent retracement of a decline from July 30 high to Sept 20 low.
EURO/DOLLAR: "On Monday, euro/dollar broke the strong support line, drawn thorough Sept 21 and Oct 11 lows. As long as it stays below this important former support and current resistance line -- which is now at $0.8935 -- it may eventually target the previous Sept 06 low of 0.8820. The September 11 low of 0.8990 is the possible resistance level. Above it is a strong declining trendline, connecting Oct.8, 9, 16 and 17 highs. This potential resistance line is now at 0.9005, declining at a pace of 20 pips a day.

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