23 October 2001, 12:20 Sakakibara - Japanese govt bond market not in immediate danger of collapse
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Eisuke Sakakibara, a former vice finance
minister who remains an influential commentatot on the economy, said
the government bond market is is not in immediate danger of collapse,
though fund managers' purchases of overseas assets will likely rise
toward the year-end.
He added that despite rising offshore investment local investors
are, for now, restrained.
"I think there will be no collapse in the Japanese government bond
market for now but some event in the future may trigger such a
collapse," he said, noting that local institutions have already begun
buying overseas bonds in recent months.
"Japanese investors have already been substantially purchasing
overseas bonds using hedging," Sakakibara told a conference of business
leaders.
"Looking at these three to four months, they have been buying
considerable amounts of Treasuries and will likely increase these
purchases into the year-end because they think Japanese government
bonds are becoming risky."
Sakakibara said the government's promise of keeping new bond issues
below 30 trln yen seems impossible to keep without further spending
cuts.
"It is almost impossible for the government to compile a budget for
the next fiscal year that limits new bond issues within 30 trln yen
unless it can cut spending substantially," he said.
"Some (Ministry of Finance) officials responsible for the budget
are complaining that we cannot compile a budget, without issuing large
amounts of new government bonds, under conditions of negative growth,"
Sakakibara said.
"Further monetary easing will not help boost the economy even if
inflation targeting is introduced," he added.
Sakakibara said the government needs to push through economic
restructuring to encourage overseas investors back into the domestic
financial markets.
"Foreign investors, who had been vigorously buying Japanese stocks
from April through half of the July-September period have held off
further investments because structural reforms have not shown
substantial progress.
"Demonstrating some signs of progress on reforms will restart
purchases by foreign investors because their stock portfolios are at
quite a low level and they are eager to buy Japanese equities," he
said.
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