---- by Robert Fenner ---- SYDNEY (AFX) - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 pct, with a further cut of 25 points likely in November although there is some pressure for a full 50 points to be implemented tomorrow, economists said. National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster believes a cut of 50 basis points before the end of the year is likely, most probably in two steps. He noted that while the 25 basis point cut on Sept 5 was against expectations, circumstances since then "have re-ignited calls for further monetary stimulus." Oster agrees with the RBA's public statements that time is needed to assess the impact of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks in the US on the global economy but added that "it seems clear that in the short term the US and global economies are headed for a very hard landing. "The decision for the RBA seems not so much if to cut, but rather by how much," Oster said. "In our view further short-term stimulus seems necessary and appropriate although the RBA is likely to move cautiously. This points to a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate," he said. He expects the RBA to monitor developments and if economic growth shows signs of softness a further cut before the end of the year is likely. Westpac Bank economics general manager Bill Evans believes a 50 basis point cut is likely but there remains a risk the RBA may opt for 25 basis points as a precautionary move tomorrow. The RBA's September cut came about because it prioritised global economic risks ahead of the domestic risk that the housing market would be over-stimulated, Evans noted. "Global risks have increased significantly since (then) due to the ongoing weak data in the US for the period leading up to Sept 11 and of course the potential additional fallout from the terrorist attacks," he said. He noted that the RBA was the only major central bank not to cut rates following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut on Sept 17. Evans believes the US Federal Reserve may cut another 50 points later today, which will be after the today's RBA board meeting but before the decision is released tomorrow morning. "Given the sharply heightened global risks and the fact that the Fed would have cut by a total of 1.0 percentage point since the last RBA move, we think the RBA is certain to move again," he said. "On balance, we expect that the circumstances will justify a 50 points cut but we have a significant concern that the RBA will decide on a more conservative 0.25 pct move," he said. "Adding to the urgency of a 50 points cut is that the move needs to be good for two months, given the imminent election campaign. By then, the Fed and the other central banks are likely to have cut even further," he said. Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said a rate cut "looks a near certainty", with Commonwealth expecting 25 basis points. Blythe said the events of Sept 11 created a number of new downside risks to the economy through the immediate dislocation to transport, communications and financial activity, coupled with the impact on business and consumer confidence. "They may be enough to tip the global economy into recession. They should be enough to stir the RBA into action," he said. "The size of any Australian rate cut remains an open issue. We favor a 25 basis point move but there are clearly pretty good odds on getting something larger," he said. Blythe believes that if the RBA chooses a 50 basis point cut, either all or it tomorrow or half tomorrow with another 25 basis points in November, then that is likely to be as low as Australian interest rates go. "It would leave monetary-policy settings at their most expansionary for the modern era," he said. BIS Shrapnel senior economist Richard Robinson believes the RBA might not cut rates because the domestic economy is showing signs of strength. Robinson believes the RBA could keep a rate cut on hold to utilise later as a boost to confidence if sentiment turns more pessimistic while the prospect of a federal election is another reason to hold off on a cut for now.