19 October 2001, 12:17 Forex - Dollar/yen stable in midmorning Tokyo despite negative Japan comment
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen was rangebound on a lack of
strong leads despite negative comments on the Japanese economy by
government officials, with the economy's weakness already factored into
the market, dealers said.
State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Heizo Takenaka said
Japan cannot avoid negative growth for the year to March 2002, adding
that the economic situation is becoming severe after the Sept 11
attacks on the US.
"There is a possibility that US GDP growth will be negative in the
third and fourth quarters," Takenaka told a regular briefing. "It is
unavoidable that Japanese GDP growth will also become negative."
However, Standard and Poor's MMS managing analyst Hideki Naito said
trading in the dollar/yen remained "sandwiched" between the 120 and 122
yen levels.
"Traders are not seriously concerned with Japan's fundamentals.
Their focus is on developments in Afghanistan and bio-terrorism," he
said, adding that traders "are reluctant to take fresh positions into
the weekend."
Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said this morning that the
dollar/yen should reflect Japan's economic fundamentals, adding that
the government is not attempting to weaken the yen excessively.
"We are not intent on advocating a weak-yen policy. What we want to
say is that the dollar/yen should move according to fundamentals,"
Shiokawa told a regular briefing.
"The mass media has stressed too much the government's forex stance
as a weak-yen policy," he added.
Naito said most traders tend to close out their positions ahead of
Thanksgiving Day in November, with opportunities to speculate open only
over the next week or so.
"If one of the trading ranges, the low side or the high side, is
clearly breached, buying or selling from spec funds can be expected,"
he said. "Next week it's difficult to see a clear direction."
Naito said the deliberations over the supplementary budget are
neutral for the market due to the moderate size of the government's
spending plans.
"Some said it's too small but, in contrast, if they had said there
would be a large supplementary budget, we'd be concerned about the
increased budget deficit," he said.
"My personal opinion in the first stage is that the size of the
supplementary budget is enough. But I don't think it will trigger a
boost in the Japanese economy at all."
Finance Minister Shiokawa said this morning that the government
will continue to emphasise reform in its planned supplementary budget
but may increase spending if necessary.
"We have been able to obtain consensus from the ruling parties that
the supplementary budget should emphasise structural reforms," Shiokawa
said.
"However, we will take necessary action on the budget, depending on
the future developments of the global economy" following the Sept 11
attacks.
The euro continued to be weak on uncertainty over the economic
outlook in the eurozone and after comments from the European Central
Bank overnight that it is not ready to cut rates further.
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