19 October 2001, 11:55 Forex - Euro pressured in early trade ahead of German Ifo numbers
LONDON (AFX) - The euro is under further pressure in early trade as
attention shifts to the German index of business sentiment for
September, due for release at 9.00 am, dealers said.
The euro has struggled all week, unable to capitalise on the
multitude of difficulties afflicting the dollar, from poor economic
news to the anthrax alert, which forced the closure of Capitol Hill on
Wednesday.
Neil MacKinnon, senior currency strategist at Merrill Lynch said
"all eyes are on the Ifo index" but doubts that the data will alter
sentiment towards the euro too much. The euro could drop to 88.5 cents
against the dollar, MacKinnon said, as long positions are being
unwound.
"It's been on the backfoot all week, not helped by the ECB's
apparent inflexibility on rates," he said. However, he thinks the euro
will have a better base for recovery once the long positions, set up
after Sept 11, are unwound.
The Ifo survey is expected to give a reading of around 88, down
from 89.8 in August. Anything substantially lower may present another
euro-selling opportunity, dealers said.
Evidence of the parlous state of the German economy was provided
yesterday by finance minister Hans Eichel, who cut his 2001 growth
forecast for Europe's largest economy to 0.75 pct.
The European Central Bank also provided bears a reason for selling.
In its monthly bulletin, the central bank confirmed that confidence
in the euro zone has been hit hard by the terrorist attacks in the US.
However, dealers were disappointed the ECB appears reluctant to ease
rates.
Bear Stearns currency economist Steve Barrow agrees with MacKinnon
that the euro could fall to 0.88 usd by the end of the year.
"A quicker-than-expected resolution to the conflict in
Afghanistan... and possible euro sales at year-end should put 0.88 usd
in the frame," he said.
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