17 October 2001, 12:16  UK Data Preview:Unemployment Set To Rise As Lab Mkt Eases

LONDON (MktNews) - The latest official labour market data are expected to confirm that the long-awaited easing in the jobs market is underway, analysts said Tuesday.
Claimant count unemployment is expected to rise 4,000, after a decline of 6,000 in August, according to a Market News survey of economists.
A rise in unemployment in September may herald the reverse of a long running declining trend. The claimant count has fallen by an average of 10,000 a month in the past three months and by an average of 11,000 since the start of the year.
Many analysts have been surprised by the continued strength of the labour market given the slowdown in the economy.
For September, though, analysts cite some clear evidence to back up their views that the data will show the labor market has turned this month.
First, alternative measures to the claimant count have pointed to an easing, rather than a tightening, in the labour market in recent months.
The Labour Force Survey, also published by the National Statistics office, showed the employment rate among those of working age was 74.6% in May to July, down 0.2 percentage points on the previous three months.
Moreover, the International Labour Organisation's measure (the international standard measure for joblessness) showed unemployment rising by 13,000 in the three months to July compared with the previous three months.
"To our minds this marks the turn in the labour market and the beginning of a gentle rise in unemployment, which we expect will see the claimant count measure follow suit by 5,000 this month," said David Page, economist at Investec.
Private-sector survey evidence has also shown demand for employees slackening. A survey by NTC Research, for example, revealed that permanent work placements by UK recruitment consultants fell in September at their fastest rate since 1997.
Also the events of September 11 have led to well publicised job losses in the airline sector, which may start to feed through to the data as early as this month.
The labour market report is also expected to show average earnings growth easing slightly. A Market News survey revealed that the median forecast was for the headline rate of earnings growth -- a measure based on the three months to August compared with the same period a year earlier -- to fall to 4.5% from 4.6% in July.
If, as expected, joblessness begins to pick up and earnings growth moderates, then the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's long-held fears over the inflationary effects of the tight labour market will begin to diminish.
"I think the labour market is going to stop being an issue of concern," Michael Hume, economist at Lehman Brothers, said. LONDON (MktNews) - The latest official labour market da xpected to confirm that the long-awaited easing in the jobs nderway, analysts said Tuesday. Claimant count unemployment is expected to rise 4,000, ecline of 6,000 in August, according to a Market News surve conomists. A rise in unemployment in September may herald the reve ong running declining trend. The claimant count has fallen verage of 10,000 a month in the past three months and by an 1,000 since the start of the year. Many analysts have been surprised by the continued stre abour market given the slowdown in the economy. For September, though, analysts cite some clear evidenc heir views that the data will show the labor market has tur onth. First, alternative measures to the claimant count have n easing, rather than a tightening, in the labour market in onths. The Labour Force Survey, also published by the National ffice, showed the employment rate among those of working ag n May to July, down 0.2 percentage points on the previous t Moreover, the International Labour Organisation's measu nternational standard measure for joblessness) showed unemp ising by 13,000 in the three months to July compared with t hree months. "To our minds this marks the turn in the labour market eginning of a gentle rise in unemployment, which we expect laimant count measure follow suit by 5,000 this month," sai age, economist at Investec. Private-sector survey evidence has also shown demand fo lackening. A survey by NTC Research, for example, revealed ermanent work placements by UK recruitment consultants fell eptember at their fastest rate since 1997. Also the events of September 11 have led to well public osses in the airline sector, which may start to feed throug ata as early as this month. The labour market report is also expected to show avera rowth easing slightly. A Market News survey revealed that t orecast was for the headline rate of earnings growth -- a m ased on the three months to August compared with the same p ear earlier -- to fall to 4.5% from 4.6% in July. If, as expected, joblessness begins to pick up and earn oderates, then the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committe ong-held fears over the inflationary effects of the tight l ill begin to diminish. "I think the labour market is going to stop being an is oncern," Michael Hume, economist at Lehman Brothers, said.

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